OK, as predictions go, this isn’t exactly Joe Willie Namath material.

But the Memphis Tigers (21-0, 7-0 Conference USA) ARE NOT going to become the first unbeaten Division I men’s basketball team since Indiana in 1975-76.

The Tigers nearly went down on Saturday, squeaking past Texas-El Paso 70-64. Their old weakness, free-throw shooting, exposed itself again (21-for-41 from the line). The Tigers still look much closer to a really, really good team (instead of a great team).

Memphis has done everything necessary—so far—to earn a No. 1 seed at the NCAA Tournament. It very well could do some damage in March, perhaps making the program’s first Final Four since 1985.

But an unbeaten record? Nope.

It has become the college basketball version of splitting an atom. Heck, just 11 teams (2005 Illinois, 2004 Saint Joseph’s, 2004 Stanford, 1999 Duke, 1998 Princeton, 1997 Kansas, 1996 Massachusetts, 1996 Texas Tech, 1990 LaSalle, 1988 Temple and 1987 UNLV) have entered the tournament with only ONE defeat since the 64-team field was introduced in 1985.

None of them won the national championship.

Since Indiana’s 1976 title, only two teams entered the NCAA Tournament unbeaten (1979 Indiana State, 1991 UNLV).

Neither won the national championship.

Memphis coach John Calipari would never admit to this publicly. But would dropping a game or two in February be such a bad thing?

The C-USA opponents might not offer much resistence—UCF goes to Memphis on Feb. 9—but the real date to watch might be Feb. 23 (Tennessee at Memphis).