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AccuScore Predicts Atlanta Beats Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24-20

Posted Dec 10, 2008 by Anwar S. Richardson

Updated Dec 10, 2008 at 03:26 PM

AccuScore, the best sports forecasting website on the internet, correctly predicted Tampa Bay would lose against Carolina this week and currently has a new prediction.

AccuScore currently predicts that Atlanta will defeat Tampa Bay, 24-20, and hand the Buccaneers their second consecutive loss.

To learn more about AccuScore, click here AccuScore Predicts Tampa Bay Loss

Here is this week’s preview (provided exclusively to TBO.com):

ACCUSCORE PREVIEW: Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons
By Stephen Oh

Over 10,000 simulations the Falcons are winning 64 percent the time with Tampa Bay winning 36 percent. The average score is Atlanta 24, Tampa Bay 20. With both teams pushing for the playoffs, there are 2 statistical keys for Tampa Bay to pull off the upset.

Tampa Bay Run Defense
Carolina ran for nearly 300 yards on Monday Night. The question for Tampa Bay is was this a one game aberration or a troubling trend? Three weeks ago, the lowly Lions ran for over 100 yards with rookie Kevin Smith averaging 5.4 ypc. This was just his 3rd game over 5 yards per carry. But two weeks ago the Bucs shut down the Saints’ running game. In Week 11 they contained Adrian Peterson limiting him to ‘just’ 85 yards.

This week’s challenge is stopping Michael Turner. Turner has had at least 80 rushing yards in all but one home game. He has 3 games with well over 100 yards. In simulations, Turner is averaging 97.6 yards on 4.3 ypc. When Turner has 100 or more rushing yards the Falcons chances of winning improve to 82 percent. The first key for Tampa Bay is to hold Turner to under 100 yards. When Tampa Bay holds Turner under 100 yards they win nearly 50 percent of the time (48.3 percent to be exact).

Tampa Bay Pass Defense
The second statistical key is intercepting Matt Ryan at least once. Ryan is averaging 227 passing yards, 1.3 TD passes and 0.8 interceptions. However, in simulations where Ryan has at least 1 interception and Turner is held under 100 rushing yards the Bucs have a 57 percent chance of winning by an average score of TB 22, ATL 20.

Playoff Picture After Win/Loss
It looks like the team that wins this game is the team that will get the final Wildcard spot in the NFC. Carolina controls its own destiny and has a 69 percent chance of winning the NFC South. Tampa Bay has a 64 percent chance of making the playoffs and Atlanta a 57 percent chance.

If Tampa Bay wins the game they virtually lock up a playoff spot making the playoffs in over 90 percent of the simulations. If the Falcons win they get the commanding position making the playoffs 79 percent of the time with Tampa Bay falling to just 50 percent. Obviously, this is a huge game for both teams.