Luke Easterling's Draft Analysis:

Forum: Talk Bucs | Special Report: NFL Draft

Here’s my final take on tomorrow’s first round.  I’m projecting a trade in this one, and be watching closely at the #2 spot with the Lions/Bucs…

1. Oakland Raiders - JaMarcus Russell, LSU, QB - I’m sticking with this one.  The Raiders are said to be leaning heavily in Russell’s direction, and it’s a much greater need than WR.  Don’t forget, however, that we’re dealing with Al Davis here, so don’t be too surprised to see Calvin Johnson’s name called first tomorrow.

2. Detroit Lions - Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech - Johnson will go #2, but the question is what team will be with by the end of the day?  The Lions will take Johnson and try to shop him around the rest of the day, namely to the Bucs.  The Lions would like to trade down a few spots, pick up a pick or two, and take Clemson DE Gaines Adams.

3. Cleveland Browns - Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame - The Browns are rumored to be losing interest in Adrian Peterson, and while Joe Thomas is still a strong possibility here, I believe Quinn will be the pick.  Quinn can come in and immediately provide identity to a Browns team that is starving for it.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin - This is the Bucs pick IF they stay at #4 and don’t strike a deal with the Lions.  If a deal with the Lions can be made, the Bucs will take Adams here and swap with Detroit for Calvin Johnson and a package of players/picks.  If they stay put in every direction, however, Thomas would be the best option.

5. *Atlanta Falcons (from ARI) - Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma - This may surprise some people, but the Falcons have been quiet on Peterson and I believe this could be why.  They definitely have the ammunition to trade up from #8.  Warrick Dunn is getting older, and Jerious Norwood may not be able to carry the full load of Bobby Petrino’s run-heavy offense.  If Thomas is gone, Arizona will want to get out of this pick, and there will be more than a few teams interested in Peterson.

6. Washington Redskins - Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson - It will be a toss-up here for the ‘Skins between Adams and DT Amobi Okoye.  I think Adams will be the pick in the end, giving a serious boost to a dismal pass rushing unit that notched a franchise-low 19 sacks last season.

7. Minnesota Vikings - LaRon Landry, S, LSU - This isn’t the biggest area of need for the Vikings, but it’s definitely the best value.  Landry is the most complete defensive back in the draft, and could start immediately.  This would be a much better option than reaching for a wide receiver or pass rusher here.

8. *Arizona Cardinals (from HOU, through ATL) - Levi Brown, OT, Penn State - If Thomas is gone at #5, this would be the best-case scenario for the Cards, who are in desperate need of a left tackle.  They would acquire an extra 1st-day pick from Atlanta, while still picking ahead of Miami, who covets Brown. 

9. Miami Dolphins - Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville - The Dolphins would likely be scrambling to trade ahead of #8 if the Cards/Falcons deal happens, in order to secure Brown.  If the ‘Fins are forced to stay here with Brown off the board, they will look for the top defensive lineman available, and there’s no doubt that Okoye is that player.

10. Houston Texans (from ATL) - Leon Hall, CB, Michigan - This is a perfect fit for the Texans.  Corner is a top need, and with Peterson off the board, Hall becomes their next best option.

11. San Francisco 49ers - Patrick Willis, LB, Mississippi - If Willis is on the board, the 49ers will jump at the chance to select him, from what I’m hearing.  I think DE may be a bigger need for the ‘Niners, but the team is said to be smitten with Willis.

12. Buffalo Bills - David Harris, LB, Michigan - Don’t start yelling just yet.  Remember Donte’ Whitner at #8?  Yeah, I thought so.  The Bills are said to like Harris over reaching for Marshawn Lynch or Darrelle Revis, and they’ve defenitely set a precedent for making picks like this.

13. St. Louis Rams - Jamaal Anderson, DE, Arkansas - The choice for the Rams will be tough between Anderson and DT Alan Branch.  With Branch’s stock falling so severly due to concerns about his work ethic, Anderson will likely get the nod.

14. Carolina Panthers - Greg Olsen, TE, Miami (FL) - There are late rumors that the Panthers are looking at the safety position, but I believe they’ll stick with Olsen, who is the best tight end in this year’s class, by far.

15. Pittsburgh Steelers - Lawrence Timmons, LB, Florida State - Mike Tomlin’s new defense will call for more speed, especially at outside linebacker.  Timmons would be the perfect pick to replace the departed Joey Porter.

16. Green Bay Packers - Marshawn Lynch, RB, California - This pick would be a no-brainer for the Packers, who have no legitimate starter, nor much depth, at running back.  The Packers would hope that Buffalo doesn’t take Lynch before they get the chance.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars - Adam Carriker, DE, Nebraska - The Jags would love to see Carriker fall to them at this spot.  Safety is also a need, but Carriker would be a much better value at this spot than the available safety prospects.

18. Cincinnati Bengals - Darrelle Revis, CB, Pittsburgh - The Bengals will be hoping that the Bills don’t reach for Revis before they can get their hands on him.  Revis has seen his stock rise considerable over the last week or so, and would be a nice fit for the Bengals.

19. Tennessee Titans - Ted Ginn, Jr., WR, Ohio State - Wouldn’t Vince Young love this one?  Ginn still has some question marks, but his explosiveness and big-play ability will be hard for the Titans to pass up.

20. New York Giants - Alan Branch, DT, Michigan - This is purely the best-player-available theory.  Branch was projected as a lock for the top 10 just a couple months ago, and if he can take full advantage of his athletic ability, he could end up being the steal of this draft.

21. Denver Broncos - Jarvis Moss, DE, Florida - Defensive End is the biggest need for the Broncos, by far.  The choice for Denver here will be between Moss and Purdue’s Anthony Spencer.  Moss is an explosive pass rusher who reminds scouts of a young Jevon Kearse.

22. Dallas Cowboys - Aaron Ross, DB, Texas - The Cowboys will be choosing between a top WR and Ross, who is one of the most versatile defenders in the draft.  Ross, who was last year’s recipient of the Jim Thorpe Award (nation’s top defensive back), can play both safety and corner, and also excels as a return man.

23. Kansas City Chiefs - Dwayne Bowe, WR, LSU - The Cheifs have needed a pick like this for quite a while now, and it’s about time they made it.  Bowe has a superb blend of size and speed, isn’t afraid to go over the middle, and was a very clutch, productive receiver at LSU.

24. New England Patriots (from SEA) - Reggie Nelson, S, Florida - The Pats would love to see Nelson fall to them at this spot.  He’s a ball-hawk of a safety who would fill one of the two big defensive needs for New England.

25. New York Jets - Anthony Spencer, DE/OLB, Purdue - I think this could end up being a major steal.  Spencer would fit perfectly in the Jets’ defensive system because he would be able to play as a defensive end in the 3-4, and also play as an edge-rush linebacker in the 3-4 scheme, both of which the Jets run.

26. Philadelphia Eagles - Chris Houston, CB, Arkansas - The Eagles don’t have any gaping holes at their starting positions, so they can afford to choose a player like Houston, who will need some time to adjust to the vast array of coverages he must learn at the NFL level.  Houston’s stock had been on a steady rise since the combine, but has leveled off as of late.

27. New Orleans Saints - Justin Harrell, DT, Tennessee - The Saints will be looking at a few different positions with this pick, all of them on defense.  Harrell has been shooting up draft boards like crazy over the last week, and he would be a great pick at this point, especially if he can prove he’s fully healed from a torn biceps injury.

28. New England Patriots - Paul Posluszny, LB, Penn State - This guy is absolutely a Bill Belicheck-type of player.  The Pats will be looking to provide some youthful depth at linebacker with this pick, and if “Poz” falls to them, he should be the pick.

29. Baltimore Ravens - Joe Staley, OT, Central Michigan - The Ravens would love to see Staley, who’s stock has risen considerably over the past week, fall to them here.  Staley would have a year to learn behind one of the best in the league, Jonathan Ogden, before taking over as the starting left tackle.

30. San Diego Chargers - Robert Meachem, WR, Tennessee - The Chargers have been needing this pick for a long time.  Antonio Gates needs a legitimate #1 receiver to take double-coverage away from him, and Meachem definitely fits the bill.

31. Chicago Bears - Ben Grubbs, G, Auburn - If Grubbs was an offensive tackle, he would be a top 10 pick this year, without a doubt.  The Bears would be getting a major steal with this pick, and could have themselves a Pro Bowler for the next 10 seasons in Grubbs.

32. Indianapolis Colts - Jon Beason, LB, Miami (FL) - The Colts have a few positions of need, but the spot vacated by free agent Cato June may be the biggest.  Beason is a big, fast play-maker who would fit well into Tony Dungy’s defense.

*-projected trade

---

I can’t help thinking that if I were a die-hard Lions fan, even given the team’s history with first-round wide receivers, I would love to see Calvin Johnson playing for my team.

If you happen to be of that mindset, you might just get your wish.

The most likely scenario for the Lions at this point is to take Johnson with the #2 pick, and then keep negotiations rolling throughout the first round with teams such as Tampa Bay or Atlanta.  If a deal can’t be reached, the Lions would then simply hang onto Johnson.  Hardly a disappointing consolation prize, I must say.

The Lions don’t need a WR, in my opinion.  Roy Williams is a solid #1 receiver, and the Lions got great play out of #2 WR Mike Furrey last year.  Throw in the chance that Mike Williams might still develop into a solid target, along with the siging of Marcus Robinson earlier this week, and the Lions seem rather deep at the position.  However, that still might not keep Lions GM Matt Millen from selecting the consensus top player in the draft with the second overall selection.

I still believe that the Lions’ best option is Brady Quinn at this point.  The signing of DE Dewayne White offsets the immediate need for a top pass rusher, and they are set at offensive tackle after acquiring George Foster from Denver to team up with Jeff Backus.  QB must be addressed for this team to be a contender in the next 3-5 years, and passing up a franchise QB like Quinn and waiting until the 2nd or 3rd round for a lower-level QB would be a huge mistake.

---

You have a young QB with loads of talent, who you’ve spent loads of money on (including an $8 million “buy-back” bonus just last off-season).  The problem is, you have built the franchise on top of him, rather than around him.  So, what’s the logical next move?

For the Texans, that move was to trade two second round picks (one this year, one next year) AND swap first rounders with Atlanta this year (dropping down two picks) for QB Matt Schaub.  The Matt Schaub with endless potential just waiting for an opportunity to start?  Maybe.  The Matt Schaub with only two NFL starts under his belt (0-2 in those starts, including going 17-41, no scores and two picks in a loss to the Saints), a career completion percentage of 52.2, and a career QB rating of 69.2?  Yeah, that’s the one.

I’m not denying Schaub’s potential here.  I’m simply stating that this was a giant step sidways for Houston, if not a step backward.

David Carr is a little less than 2 years older than Schaub.  However, Carr has started 75 of 76 games for Houston, posted a 3,500 yard season in 2004, has a career completion percentage of 60 (including 68% last season, WHICH LED THE NFL), all while getting sacked an average of 50 times per season.  Doing what Carr has done, with the lack of talent and team support around him, was no small feat.  The front office was always second guessing him.  He was given no consistent supporting cast outside of WR Andre Johnson. 

The Texans crucified the wrong man this off-season.  David Carr did a much better job than most would’ve, if given the situation he was in.  And to the Texans’ brass, I hate to tell you this, but you just swapped a solid, experienced QB for a question mark (and gave the ? more money), and you lost two high draft choices in the process, which could’ve been used to actually improve the team.  And to top it all off, you dropped two picks in this year’s draft, which migh end up costing you a player such as Adrian Peterson or LaRon Landry.

This could be a move that sets the Texans back to the year they first entered the league.  The only bright spots happen to be on defense, where a solid young core of players has built a strong unit (LB DeMeco Ryans, CB Dunta Robinson and DE Mario Williams).

---

The Bucs would be wise to use the majority of their 4 first-day picks on defense, but wide reciever is still a rather big need.  Joey Galloway is on his last legs (which are still some of the fastest in the league), Michael Clayton is still an enigma, and Maurice Stovall has yet to prove much.  However, it seems like the talk is that if the Bucs don’t land Calvin Johnson, drafting a receiver heads beyond the back burner.  This shouldn’t be the case.

If the Bucs lose out on Johnson and end up with a player like Joe Thomas or Gaines Adams, they should take a hard look at the receivers who could be available when their pick comes around at the top of the second round.  There will still be a few very talented receivers who could make an immediate impact for the team, as well as providing some young depth for the future.

Dwayne Jarrett, USC - Jarrett is definitely a first round talent, but because of the deep receiver class and depending on other teams’ needs, there’s still a slim chance that he could fall into the 2nd round.  Jarrett’s size and ability to catch jump balls, as well as throws over the middle, would make him a serious threat, especially in the red zone. 

Sidney Rice, South Carolina - Another year in school would’ve done Rice some good, but he’s still a dynamic play-maker with great leaping ability.  He would do well to add some bulk to his lanky frame, though.

Anthony Gonzalez, Ohio State - While teammate Ted Ginn, Jr. was making all the highlight reels, it was Gonzalez who was the more consistent receiver of the two.  Gonzalez is a great route runner with exceptional hands, and while his speed may not be quite on Ginn’s level, he still ran in the low 4.4s at the combine.

Steve Smith, USC - Jarrett’s counterpart at USC could also merit consideration for the Bucs at the top of round 2.  Smith is a smaller receiver, but he has sure hands and runs superb routes.

Craig Davis, LSU - Davis’ value lies more around the bottom of the 2nd round, so the Bucs could give him a look at pick #64.  Davis was overshadowed a bit by Tiger teammate Dwayne Bowe, but his combination of size (6-2, 210) and speed (4.46 40), as well as his solid hands, shouldn’t be overlooked.  Davis is full of talent, but is a bit raw and could take a little longer to fine tune his game.

A wide receiver would be a smart pick if the value simply isn’t there at the defensive positions of need in the 2nd round (provided the Bucs pick Thomas or Adams). 

---

The Patriots are the only team in this year’s draft with two first round picks, and they have a ton of options with each of them.

The most unlikely option would be using both picks to trade up in the first round.  The Patriots seem to much prefer waiting to see who comes to them, and then plucking players who fit their schemes and team philosophy well.  While Ole Miss ILB Patrick Willis is awfully tempting and would definitely fill a huge need, I don’t see that Pats trading up to get him.

The Patriots will look to add depth and youth on defense, especially at linebacker.  Tedy Bruschi, Mike Vrabel and Roosevelt Colvin are all aging veterans who won’t be around much longer.  The Pats could use both inside and outside help at the linebacker position, and there’s plenty of first-round talent that should be available to them at either pick.  At pick #24, Florida State’s Lawrence Timmons could be available, but only if he slips past Pittsburgh at #15.  Miami’s Jon Beason is could be an option at #28, and would project as an inside backer in the Pats’ 3-4 scheme.

The secondary is another area of need for the New England defense, even if disgruntled franchise player Asante’ Samuel returns at corner.  The Pats would do well to target a versatile player such as Texas’ Aaron Ross, who can play any position in the defensive backfield, and is also a dangerous return specialist.  Other first round options at defensive back include safeties Brandon Meriweather of Miami and Michael Griffin of Texas, and corners Chris Houston of Arkansas and Darrelle Revis of Pittsburgh.

---

Welcome to another update of my mock draft.  I will post my final mock draft Friday night, April 27th, the night before the Draft.

(Note: I do not predict potential trades)

1. Oakland Raiders - JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU - Obviously, Al Davis will be tempted to take Calvin Johnson, but unless the Raiders unload salary cap nightmare Randy Moss AND acquire a starting-calibur QB, Davis shouldn’t pass on Russell.

2. Detroit Lions - Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame - I still believe that this would be the best choice for the Lions if they stay at #2.  Jon Kitna is not the answer for the Lions future (and maybe not even the present), and Quinn would be the best value here.  I prefer Quinn to Russell, so I actually believe the Lions would be getting a steal here.

3. Cleveland Browns - Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma - If both of the top QBs are gone, the Browns will go with Peterson, who is quite a swell consolation prize.  The Browns have lacked a legitimate home-run threat at RB for some time now, and signing aging veteran Jamal Lewis to a one-year deal was obviously nothing more than a short term solution.  After a year of splitting carries between the two, Cleveland would likely part ways with Lewis and hand the reigns to Peterson.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech - This would be a great situation for the Bucs, should CJ fall to #4.  I don’t believe it would be worth it to trade up for him, but if he falls, the Bucs should waste no time making this pick.  WR isn’t the biggest need on the team, but make no mistake, it is a need.  With Joey Galloway aging, Michael Clayton’s inconsistency and injuries, and the lack of solid depth behind 2nd-year stud Maurice Stovall, Johnson would be a welcome addition.

5. Arizona Cardinals - Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin - This would be a dream come true for Arizona, who is desperately in need of a left tackle to anchor the offensive line.  Thomas would be a great addition to an already explosive offensive attack, and would make life a lot easier on Edgerrin James.

6. Washington Redskins - Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson - The ‘Skins would be ecstatic if Adams fell to #6, after watching their dismal pass rush tally a franchise-low 19 sacks last season.  Adams is a beast of a pass rusher, and has the bulk to play solid against the run.

7. Minnesota Vikings - LaRon Landry, S, LSU - The Vikings have a few different need areas, but there’s no better value here than Landry, who ran a blistering 4.35 40 at the Combine, and is the most complete safety in the draft.

8. Atlanta Falcons (from HOU) - Jamaal Anderson, DE, Arkansas - If Landry is off the board, the Falcons will likely be choosing between Anderson and Amobi Okoye.  Anderson should end up being the pick, filling the void left behind by Patrick Kerney, who left via free agency.  John Abraham’s durability issues make DE a greater need, as well.

9. Miami Dolphins - Levi Brown, OT, Penn State - This is a very likely scenario for the Dolphins, whose #1 need is cleary at OT.  Brown isn’t at Joe Thomas’ level, but he’s certainly a stellar tackle who could start immediately.

10. Houston Texans (from ATL) - Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville - The Texans stop Okoye’s fall here, and they couldn’t be happier.  Houston definitely has bigger needs at CB and OT, but it would be too much to pass up a rising talent like Okoye, who has worked extremely hard in the off-season to slim down and has become even more explosive off the ball.

11. San Francisco 49ers - Adam Carriker, DE, Nebraska - The 49ers have many needs and could go in one of many different directions with this pick.  If they stay at #12, there’s no WR worth reaching for after CJ, so they’ll likely move to the defensive side of the ball.  Carriker is a massive player who excels both in run support and rushing the passer.

12. Buffalo Bills - Leon Hall, CB, Michigan - The loss of Nate Clements to free agency was devastating to the Bills, who have many needs, but none larger than the hole left behind by Clements.  While Patrick Willis is still a strong possibility, Hall will be very hard to pass up.

13. St. Louis Rams - Alan Branch, DT, Michigan - Branch’s stock has been dropping as of late due to questions about his work ethic and motor.  The Rams, however, could not afford to pass on Branch’s amazing talent if he falls to them at #12.

14. Carolina Panthers - Patrick Willis, LB, Mississippi - This would be a no-brainer pick for the Panthers, who need a replacement for the ailing Dan Morgan (concussions).  Willis was a stellar performer in the SEC throughout his career, and could start immediately.

15. Pittsburgh Steelers - Lawrence Timmons, LB, Florida State - The Steelers will be making the switch from a 3-4 defense to the 3-4 “Tampa 2”, brought over by new head coach (and former Bucs’ secondary coach) Mike Tomlin.  Speed is key in this defense, and Timmons fits the role of a fast, play-making linebacker.

16. Green Bay Packers - Marshawn Lynch, RB, California - This seems to be the most popluar pick across all draft circles.  Lynch is an explosive runner who excels at catching the ball out of the backfield, which will no doubt please Brett Favre.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars - Reggie Nelson, S, Florida - Gator fans won’t have to travel far to see this standout safety play on Sundays.  Nelson is a ball-hawking play-maker who would fill a huge need for the Jags.

18. Cincinnati Bengals - Darrelle Revis, CB, Pittsburgh - The Bengals have a few different needs, but corner is one of the larger ones.  Revis has been shooting up draft boards like crazy lately, and could find himself even higher when Draft Day rolls around.  Oh, and he hasn’t been arrested lately.

19. Tennessee Titans - Ted Ginn, Jr., WR, Ohio State - While I don’t agree with this pick (right position, but I have Dwayne Bowe, Dwayne Jarrett and Robert Meachem all ranked ahead of Ginn), the Titans seem to be smitten with Ginn.  There’s no doubt that Ginn would be an explosive addition to an already young and dynamic offensive attack.

20. New York Giants - Paul Posluszny, LB, Penn State - The Giants definitely have a need at outside linebacker, and “Poz”, who left Penn State as the school’s all-time leading tackler, is a hard-working, instense player who relies on superb instincts to consistenly make plays.

21. Denver Broncos - Jarvis Moss, DE, Florida - The Broncos biggest need, by far, is at defensive end.  They’re in luck, because this draft is especially deep at the position, so they should have their pick of the second-tier ends.  Moss is an explosive pass rusher who might need to bul up a bit to become an every-down player.

22. Dallas Cowboys - Dwayne Bowe, WR, LSU - The Cowboys, like many teams, could go in a variety of different directions with this pick.  The best value is at WR, however, and Bowe would be a great addition to an already solid receiving corps.  Bowe has a great combination of size and speed and could quickly develop into a #1-quality receiver.

23. Kansas City Chiefs - Robert Meachem, WR, Tennessee - The Chiefs are still looking for a top #1 receiver, and Meachem could eventually develop into just that.  He has had stellar off-season workouts and owns possibly the surest set of hands in the draft. 

24. New England Patriots (from SEA) - Aaron Ross, DB, Texas - The Pats have the luxury of two first rounders this year, and will look to fill holes and add depth on defense.  Ross is a versatile player who can play any spot in the secondary, while also possessing dangerous return skills.

25. New York Jets - Greg Olsen, TE, Miami (FL) - Olsen is the top TE in this year’s class, and is a very athletic target.  Olsen has a background in basketball, similar to that of Chargers’ star Antonio Gates, which will make him even more attractive to potential NFL suitors.

26. Philadelphia Eagles - Michael Griffin, S, Texas - The Eagles have been looking for solid, consistent play from their safties for some time now, and Griffin would provide them with a quality, all-around talent who could start immediately.

27. New Orleans Saints - Chris Houston, CB, Arkansas - The Saints have a gaping hole in the secondary (if not two), and they should be able to find great value with this pick.  Houston wowed scouts with his combine performance, and he shut down first-round receivers Dwayne Bowe, Robert Meachem and Dwayne Jarret last season.

28. New England Patriots - Jon Beason, LB, Miami (FL) - The Pats are getting very old at linebacker, and Beason has the size and ability to play both inside and outside in the 3-4 defense.  Beason has great speed and pursuit skills, and is a solid tackler.

29. Baltimore Ravens - Joe Staley, OT, Central Michigan - This is definitely the biggest need for the Ravens who are still waiting to hear if Jonathan Ogden will return for next season.  Staley would be a great pick even if Ogden returns for another season.

30. San Diego Chargers - Dwayne Jarrett, WR, USC - This pick just makes too much sense.  The Chargers need a receiving threat opposite Gates, and Jarrett’s combination of size and athleticism could make this offense even more dangerous than it was last year.  That’s scary.

31. Chicago Bears - Ben Grubbs, OG, Auburn - The Bears would obviously need an outside linebacker if Lance Briggs is dealt, but if he stays put, they should focus on shoring up the offensive line.  Grubbs is a devastating blocker with a real mean streak, who would fit well in the Bears’ offensive scheme.

32. Indianapolis Colts - Justin Harrell, DT, Tennessee - Harrell’s stock is sky-rocketing lately, so there’s a good chance he won’t be available here.  If he is, however, the Colts will waste no time in making him the pick here.

---

You can add another player to the mix at the #2 spot.

Oklahoma RB Adrian Peterson is reportedly scheduled to meet with the Detroit Lions on Friday, which further muddies the waters of speculation as to what the Lions are planning to do with their first round pick. 

The Lions already have Kevin Jones, who started the majority of the games last year (and was only inactive due to injury), as well as the newly-acquired Tatum Bell and T.J. Duckett. 

This looks like nothing more than a smoke screen to further entice teams to trade up to #2.  The Lions would like to move down into the 4-6 range, targeting players like Wisconsin OT Joe Thomas or Clemson DE Gaines Adams, while adding another pick or two.  The problem is that the teams who own selections 4-6 are very unlikely to be affected by that Lions’ visit with Peterson, as they are already set at the RB position.  The Bucs (#4) are only interested in trading up if Calvin Johnson is available (and already have Carnell Williams), the Cardinals (#5) have Edgerrin James, and the Redskins (#6) have Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts.

---

Here’s my take on how the first round could could shake out:

(Note: I do not project potential trades.)

1. Oakland Raiders - JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU - The Raiders are faced with a very tough decision between Russell and Calvin Johnson.  Al Davis is in love with Russell’s arm strength and ability to throw the deep ball, and I just don’t see Davis going elsewhere with this pick.

2. Detroit Lions - Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame - It’s not the popular pick as of late, but it’s the smart one to me.  Jon Kitna isn’t getting any younger, and despite throwing for over 4,000 yards last year, he threw more picks than scores.  Quinn should be a stellar QB in the NFL, whether he starts right away or spends some time behing Kitna.

3. Cleveland Browns - Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma - Don’t be fooled by the Jamal Lewis signing.  A 1-year deal with an aging veteran back only means one thing to me:  the Browns need a year from Lewis to groom Peterson, letting the two split carries.  While injuries are a huge concern with Peterson, he’s way too explosive to turn down.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech - In a perfect world, right?  As I said, I never project potential trades.  It’s hard to enough to predict what teams will do with the pick they already have.  If the three teams ahead of the Bucs stay put, this could be a very likely scenario.

5. Arizona Cardinals - Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin - Arizona will be in heaven if Thomas falls to them at #5.  Thomas is a the best offensive line prospect in the draft, and just happens to fill the biggest need on a talented, young team.

6. Washington Redskins - Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson - The Redskins posted a franchise-low 19 sacks last year, so they are obviously in desperate need of a surge in the pass rushing area.  Adams is the top sack artist in the draft and would be a no-brainer if he’s still available.

7. Minnesota Vikings - Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville - This is purely BPA (Best Player Available) with this pick.  Okoye is a 19-year-old monster that could become a dominating force alongside Kevin Williams.

8. Atlanta Falcons (from HOU) - LaRon Landry, S, LSU - I believe Landry has been the Falcons’ main target from the beginning, and the swap with the Texans greatly strengthens their chances of landing the play-making safety.  Landry is a complete player at safety who posted a 4.35 40-yard-dash at the Combine last month.

9. Miami Dolphins - Levi Brown, OT, Penn State - The Dolphins are desperate for help along the offensive line, and with Thomas off the board, Brown is the best option. 

10. Houston Texans (from ATL) - Alan Branch, DT, Michigan - The Texans will have a tough choice here between Branch and Leon Hall, and they could go either way.  While some teams have some questions about Branch’s ability to keep his weight in check, his explosiveness and ability to play every spot on the defensive line should make him the pick.

11. San Francisco 49ers - Jamaal Anderson, DE, Arkansas - The 49ers need a big play threat at WR, but with Johnson off the board, there’s no one quite worth this pick.  This means the Niners can turn to the defense, and take an explosive pass rusher in Anderson.

12. Buffalo Bills - Leon Hall, CB, Michigan - This would be the ideal situation for the Bills, who need a top-flight corner to replace the departed Nate Clements.  While Hall doesn’t have the straight-line speed that scouts prefer, his game tape speaks for itself.  Hall has all the tools and intensity to become a solid #1 corner in the NFL.

13. St. Louis Rams - Adam Carriker, DE, Nebraska - Carriker has been steadily rising up draft boards everywhere, and with good reason.  He has an explosive first step as a pass rusher and he uses his size (6-5, 296) extremely well in run support.  The Rams will take notice.

14. Carolina Panthers - Patrick Willis, ILB, Mississippi - The Panthers a in serious need of a replacement for Dan Morgan, whose future is in doubt due to multiple concussions.  Willis was a stellar playmaker throughout his career for the Rebels, and could step right in and start immediately.

15. Pittsburgh Steelers - Lawrence Timmons, OLB, Florida State - The Mike Tomlin regime will begin with a shift from a 3-4 defensive scheme to a 4-3.  Tomlin will be looking to fill his defense with tons of speed, and Timmons surely fits the bill. 

16. Green Bay Packers - Marshawn Lynch, RB, California - This would be a no-brainer pick for the Packers.  The loss of Ahman Green makes this pick that much more needed, and Lynch is an explosive home-run threat who has great hands out of the backfield.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars - Reggie Nelson, S, Florida - The Jags have a big need at safety, and they won’t have to travel far to find the man for the job.  Nelson is a ball-hawk, but must improve in run support. 

18. Cincinnati Bengals - Chris Houston, CB, Arkansas - Houston has been shooting up draft boards since his incredible performance at the combine, but I like him for different reasons.  His resume’ from last season includes shutting down Dwayne Bowe, Robert Meachem and Dwayne Jarrett.  Oh, and to my knowledge, he hasn’t been arrested recently.

19. Tennessee Titans - Ted Ginn, Jr., WR, Ohio State - If I were making this pick, I’d take Meachem, Bowe or Jarrett over Ginn.  However, since I’m not, it seems that Ginn will be chosen as Vince Young’s deep threat.  There’s no doubt that Ginn’s blazing speed and returning ability are coveted, but his size and durability are serious concerns.

20. New York Giants - Paul Posluszny, OLB, Penn State - The Giants have a huge need at OLB, and “Poz” would be a perfect pick.  He’s a gritty, hard-working player who finished his career as Penn State’s all-time leading tackler.

21. Denver Broncos - Jarvis Moss, OLB/DE, Florida - The Broncos need a top pass-rushing threat, and while Moss is undersized, his speed and array of pass rushing moves could be too much for the Broncos to pass up. 

22. Dallas Cowboys - Aaron Ross, DB, Texas - The Cowboys could go in a few different directions with this pick, but Ross would fit the biggest need.  Ross can play both corner and safety, and was the recipient of the Jim Thorpe Award last year, which honors the nation’s top defensive back.

23. Kansas City Chiefs - Dwayne Bowe, WR, LSU - This is the biggest need for Kansas City, by far.  Bowe has a stellar combination of size and speed, and could quickly develop into a solid #1 receiver.

24. New England Patriots (from SEA) - Michael Griffin, S, Texas - The Patriots don’t have too many glaring needs, but depth in the defensive backfield is one of them.  Griffin is a big hitter who could quickly develop into a solid replacement when Rodney Harrison decides to hang ‘em up.

25. New York Jets - Greg Olson, TE, Miami (FL) - The Jets have bigger needs, but Olson might be too good to pass up this late in the first round. 

26. Philadelphia Eagles - Robert Meachem, WR, Tennessee - The Eagles need a replacement at WR for the departed Donte’ Stallworth, and Meachem would be a perfect pick here.  Meachem has a great size-speed combo and has arguably the best hands in the draft.

27. New Orleans Saints - Darrelle Revis, CB, Pittsburgh - The Saints’ pass defense last season was beyond dismal, and much of that was due to injuries in the defensive backfield.  Revis, who had a great personal workout, would provide depth and could challenge for a starting job in training camp.

28. New England Patriots - Jon Beason, LB, Miami (FL) - The Pats have the luxury of two first-rounders this year, and this one would be best used to give some youthful depth to an aging linebacking corps.

29. Baltimore Ravens - LaMarr Woodley, OLB/DE, Michigan - The Ravens have bigger needs at cornerback and offensive tackle, but Woodley would be the best value here, serving as a replacement for the departed Adalius Thomas.

30. San Diego Chargers - Dwayne Jarrett, WR, USC - The Chargers have needed a solid #1 receiver for quite some time now, and they may just get their man this time.  Jarrett’s size and leaping ability would be a great addition to an already explosive Chargers offense.

31. Chicago Bears - Justin Harrell, DT, Tennessee - Outside linebacker is a bigger need for the Bears, especially if they unload franchise player Lance Briggs.  However, the better value for the need is at defensive tackle, and Harrell should be the pick.

32. Indianapolis Colts - Tanard Jackson, CB, Syracuse - The Colts have more pressing needs than corner, but the value just isn’t there at the other positions.  Jackson is a tailor-made Cover 2 corner who could quickly work his way into a starting role.

---

Last year, the Bucs experienced how difficult it is to win without solid tackling, depth, and the ability to create turnovers. 

The good news, however, is that this year’s draft is exceptionally deep at positions where the Bucs have desperate needs. 

At the safety position, the Bucs need a serious overhaul.  Solid, reliable tackling was nowhere to be found throughout the season, and there was an alarming lack of forced turnovers, one of the long-time staples of the Bucs suffocating defense.  Forturnately, the Bucs have a myriad of prospects that bring both of these abilities to the table.  Players such as Miami’s Brandon Meriweather or Florida’s Reggie Nelson are play-making ballhawks who pride themselves on their nose for the football.  John Wendling of Wyoming is vastly underrated, and is a force in run support with his instincts and consistent tackling skills.  Utah’s Eric Weddle, as well as Texas stand-outs Michael Griffin and Aaron Ross are known for their versatility, and can play both corner or free safety.

Along the defensive line, the Bucs saw a serious drop in production, both in pass rushing and run support.  Simeon Rice was not effective even before he was injured, and the Bucs depth at the position suffered even more with the off-season loss of Dewayne White.  The interior line took a hit when the Bucs traded away Anthony McFarland to the Colts.  While the newly-acquired Kevin Carter is versatile enough to play virtually every position on the line, he is aging and can’t be everywhere at one time.  The Bucs need depth here, and they need it now.  Thankfully, this year’s crop of defensive lineman is one of the deepest in recent memory.  While this class lacks a true can’t-miss prospect, there are tons of stellar players to choose from.  Clemson’s Gaines Adams, Arkansas’ Jamaal Anderson and Nebraska’s Adam Carriker are the top names at DE, while pass rushing specialists such as Purdue’s Anthony Spencer, Florida’s Jarvis Moss, and Georgia’s Charles Johnson could fall to the Bucs at the top of the 2nd round.  At DT, Michigan’s Alan Branch and Louisville’s Amobi Okoye are the cream of the crop this year, while others, such as North Carolina State’s Tank Tyler and Tennessee’s Justin Harrell could be targeted in the 2nd round.

The Bucs will definitely benefit from having an extra 2nd round pick this year.  Especially if the Bucs happen to land Calvin Johnson, they must focus on the defense with the rest of their Day 1 picks. 

---

In mock drafts across the country, Brady Quinn has been experiencing a free-fall.  What’s interesting is that I’ve yet to nail down a valid reason as to why Quinn’s stock is seemingly dropping.  One might say that he had difficulty winning big games.  While he definitely had his hands full with Michigan and USC, there were other times that Quinn, nearly single-handedly, led the Irish to improbable victories late in big games (see Michigan State, UCLA last year), so I don’t exactly buy that rationale. 

Are the Lions afraid of drafting another Joey Harrington?  Absolutely.  Is the Joey-Brady comparison unfair?  Again, absolutely.

Quinn’s college statistics far outweigh Harrington’s, as does his college starting experience.  Quinn has also worked in a very pro-style offense under head coach Charlie Weis. 

Let’s rewind.  There once was an offense so electrifying, it was called “The Greatest Show On Turf”.  It was built around a stout offensive line, a versatile running back, a solid crop of play-making receivers and a drop-back QB who was known for his ability to read defenses from the pocket and deliver throws on target consistently.  That offense was run by Mike Martz.

Fast forward.  Martz is now the offensive coordinator for the Lions.  Stout offensive line?  Not quite, but their problems aren’t at left tackle, so Wisconsin’s Joe Thomas wouldn’t be the answer.  Versatile running back?  Kevin Jones is a stellar runner with great ability to catch the ball out of the backfield (though he must stay healthy...then again, so must everyone).  How about those receivers?  Roy Williams is one of the better young WRs in the league, and while there isn’t a stellar #2 option, the Lions have plenty of capable depth at the position.  As far as the quarterback, no one can argue with Jon Kitna’s yardage total last year (4,208).  However, Kitna turns 35 in September and threw more picks than touchdowns last season. 

The Lions would be wise to take a harder look at Brady Quinn with the #2 pick, and especially if the Lions trade down and Quinn is still available.  He has the tools and poise to be prepared for an NFL offense, and his skill set fits extremely well with Mike Martz’s offense.  I can’t help but think that Martz would be having visions of Quinn-to-Williams/Faulk, much like he experienced in St. Louis with Warner, Faulk and Bruce/Holt. 

---

It’s becoming more likely by the day that if the Bucs want a shot at Georgia Tech WR Calvin Johnson, that they’re going to have to trade up from the #4 spot. 

As it turns out, the Bucs may have a trading partner.

According to reports, the Lions are wanting to trade back out of the #2 pick and acquire an extra draft choice in the process.  The Bucs fit that bill, having an extra 2nd round pick, acquired from the Colts for DT Anthony McFarland. 

This trade would make sense for both parties.  The Lions are not sold on drafting Notre Dame QB Brady Quinn, and I doubt Matt Millen wants to face the public outcry in Detroit if he were to draft yet another receiver in the 1st round.  The Bucs, on the other hand, are left playing the waiting game at #4, wondering who will slip to them.  The Bucs would be wise to pull the trigger on this type of deal, which could ensure them the opportunity to draft Johnson (pending the status of the Raiders’ QB situation come Draft Day). 

If this deal does go down, there’s a good possibility we won’t see it happen until April 28, when the Lions are on the clock.  The Bucs would want to be sure that the player they’re targeting will be available at #2 before pulling the trigger on the deal. 

---

Over the next two weeks, I’ll be taking a look at the top three need areas for every team in each NFL division.  Today we’ll look at the NFC South…

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

1. Defensive Line - This is by far the most glaring hole on the Bucs’ squad.  The loss of both Anthony McFarland (trade) and Dewayne White (free agency) have left this group with relatively no depth or youth.  Simeon Rice disappointed greatly last year before being placed on injured reserve, and the signing of Kevin Carter is no more than a one-year, stop-gap solution.

Picks That Fit: DE Gaines Adams, Clemson (Round 1), DE Anthony Spencer, Purdue (2), DT Marcus Thomas, Florida (3).

2. Safety - The Bucs saw very little in the way of playmaking and reliable tackling at the safety position last year, and that simply must improve for the defense to regain respect.  Jermaine Phillips and Will Allen have been given plenty of chances to prove that they are capable of providing the level of production expected from the Bucs’ defensive coaches (and veteran players), and I believe those chances have run out.  The Bucs need to focus on drafting two safeties in this draft: one who is a sure tackler and mentally strong to play strong safety, and another with playmaking, ball-hawking skills to patrol the deep zones at free safety.

Picks That Fit: CB/S Michael Griffin, Texas (2), FS Brandon Meriweather, Miami (FL) (2), SS John Wendling, Wyoming (4).

3. Offensive Line - The Bucs did a superb job with this position during last year’s draft, but it must continue.  A young center will be needed sooner rather than later, and young depth along the O-Line is always a necessity in the NFL. 

Picks That Fit: T Joe Thomas, Wisconsin (1), C Ryan Kalil, USC (2), G Ben Grubbs, Auburn (2).

ATLANTA FALCONS

1. Defensive End - The Falcons are in need of a top-flight pass rusher following the loss of Patrick Kerney to free agency.  John Abraham is can be a premier sack artist, but durability is a huge concern.

Picks That Fit: Jamaal Anderson, Arkansas (1), Tim Crowder, Texas (2), Quentin Moses, Georgia (3). 

2. Safety - The Falcons did a great job or shoring up the safety spot with veteran Lawyer Milloy, but he’s not getting any younger.  Chris Crocker has been a solid performer, and is still young, but the Falcons could use an upgrade.

Picks That Fit: LaRon Landry, LSU (1), Eric Weddle, Utah, (2), Josh Gattis, Wake Forest (3).

3. Wide Receiver - The Falcons have a pair of young starters at WR, both of whom they’ve spend recent first-round picks on.  However, both Roddy White and Michael Jenkins have been career underacheivers up to this point, and the Falcons need a reliable target to take attention away from TE Alge Crumpler. 

Picks That Fit: Ted Ginn, Jr., Ohio State (1), Jason Hill, Washington State (2), Courtney Taylor, Auburn (3).

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

1. Cornerback - The Saints secondary was decimated by injuries last season, so depth is a serious need here.  While Mike McKenzie is still a solid performer, Fred Thomas is serviceable at best.

Picks That Fit: Chris Houston, Arkansas (1), Eric Wright, UNLV (2), Travarous Bain, Hampton (3).

2. Defensive Tackle - Starters Hollis Thomas (34 years old) and Brian Young (30 by the start of the season) are aging, and the Saints have little depth behind them.  While Thomas is a steady force in run support, the Saints lack a true pass-rushing presence along the interior defensive line.

Picks That Fit: Justin Harrell, Tennessee (1), Turk McBride, Tennessee (2), Jay Alford, Penn State (3).

3. Linebacker - This isn’t a glaring need for the Saints as far as starters go, but depth is definitely necessary.  The signing of free agent Brian Simmons will help out considerably, but he’s not as young as he used to be and the Saints need more youth in the depth chart.

Picks That Fit: Justin Durant, Hampton (2), Stephen Nicholas, South Florida (3), Prescott Burgess, Michigan (4).

CAROLINA PANTHERS

1. Inside Linebacker - Dan Morgan’s injury concerns have forced the Panthers to look elsewhere for the future at inside linebacker.  Morgan is likely to never be the same after sustaining many concussions over his career.

Picks That Fit: Patrick Willis, Mississippi (1), David Harris, Michigan (2), H.B. Blades, Pittsburgh (3).

2. Safety - Mike Minter has been a solid starter for years in Carolina, and Shaun Williams played decently last season.  However, both players are again, and the Panthers need an infusion of youth now before it’s needed too desperately.

Picks That Fit: Reggie Nelson, Florida (1), Aaron Rouse, Virginia Tech (2), Michael Johnson, Arizona (3).

3. Defensive Line - The Panthers are getting old along the defensive line, and aside from Julius Peppers, they lack a durable, reliable pass rushing threat.  Both Kris Jenkins and Mike Rucker are on their last legs, and the Panthers need some young depth sooner rather than later.

Picks That Fit: DE Adam Carriker, Nebraska (1), DT DeMarcus “Tank” Tyler, North Carolina State, (2), DT Kareem Brown, Miami (FL) (3).

---

The Redskins draft strategy seems to be all over the map as of late.

As rumors continue to circle regarding trade talks between the Redskins and Bears involving LB Lance Briggs, another subject is sure to throw even more fuel on the fire that is the Redskins plans.  The Redskins have scheduled a meeting with former LSU QB JaMarcus Russell on April 10. 

This news sends many different messages regarding what Washington plans to do in the draft.  Sitting at the #6 pick, it’s unlikely that the ‘Skins would have a chance at Russell, though it’s still early and stranger things have happened in the draft.  However, one has to wonder why the Redskins would be targeting a young quarterback with such a high draft pick when the team already has 3rd-year QB Jason Campbell on the roster, who posted solid numbers last year (1,297 yards, 10 touchdowns, 6 interceptions) while starting the final seven games of the season.  ‘Skins fans might also remember that the deal made for Campbell on Draft Day 3 years ago wasn’t cheap.

The most likely scenario is that the Washington brass is simply smoke-screening, hoping another team will get anxious and feel forced to trade up.  The Redskins have not kept it a secret that they’d like to move down out of the #6 pick, which has been part of the conversation in a potential deal for Briggs.

---

If you follow the NFL with any kind of devoted interest, you’re well aware that there is truly no off-season.  Between free agency, owners meetings, organized team activities and mini-camps, the wheel that is the NFL never stops rolling.  It’s this time of year, however, that I believe to be the most integral in the course of off-field events that shape a franchise’s future.  It’s the time of year when we all have visions of “can’t miss” prospects in our eyes and the sound of stopwatches clicking in our ears.  Yes, it’s time for the NFL Draft.

With the NFL’s yearly college selection meeting less than a month away, teams are furiously scurrying around the country scouting pro days and holding player interviews, trying to find that franchise player or that last piece to the Super Bowl puzzle.  The draft strategy for each and every team can change with a simple free agent signing or even a deal between a pair of other teams.  Here on the NFL Draft Report, I’ll wrap about every bit of NFL action that could have an impact on this year’s draft.

---

Advertisement

Write a letter to the editor | Subscribe and get two weeks free | Place an Ad Online