Dave Blaney is going to win Sunday’s 50th Daytona 500.

Do I really think that? I think he could.

Blaney has been sneaky fast throghout testing and the last week’s events in Bill Davis Racing’s No. 22 Toyota. And it seems that Terry Elledge, who builds the Toyota motors for BDR in-house, may have found something a little extra. Blaney has never had a top-10 finish in a Cup-level points race at Daytona, and he has led only one lap in points races at the track, but he finished third last fall at Daytona’s sister track, Talladega. And his crew chief is Tommy Baldwin Jr., who won the Daytona 500 for BDR in 2002 with Ward Burton.

It’s more fun to pick Blaney than any of the obvious favorites - Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart or Jeff Gordon.

Earnhardt has looked like a favorite since the opening day of the second session of preseason testing at Daytona. At the end of the first practice, Jamie McMurray got out of his Ford and told Roush-Fenway Racing teammate Greg Biffle that Earnhardt’s No. 88 Hendrick Motorsports Chevy was “ridiculously fast.” That spelled trouble for the competition, because Earnhardt is one of the most skilled and talented plate racers in history. He won the Daytona 500 in 2004, and with DEI off its game in recent years, he has still had some good runs with cars that were inferior to the Hendrick cars.

Johnson could be a bear Sunday, and he hasn’t had a chance yet to show what he has for the 500. He has to drive a backup car in the Bud Shootout - a car built for short tracks, no less - because he wrecked his primary car in practice. He still finished third. Driving his Daytona 500 car in Thursday’s qualifying race, Johnson didn’t want to take any chances and ran conservatively. In fact, in the closing laps, he dropped way back just in case there was a wreck.

Gordon has won the 500 three times and he has a knack for winning the highest-profile races. Today’s 500 fits that description.

Stewart has yet to win the 500, but he has won Daytona’s Pepsi 400, and today’s race could emulate the hot and slick track conditions that drivers face in the summer event.

And Stewart has at least part of the media corps pulling for him. After winning Saturday’s Camping World 300 Nationwide Series race, he promised to let reporters cut his long hair if he wins the 500.

Ford does not appear to have a serious contender. Matt Kenseth ran up front briefly in his qualifier, but his car’s handling fell off and he dropped back. None of the Fords have looked as strong as the Chevrolets or Toyotas. The best Dodge has been the No. 41 of Reed Sorenson, who finished second in a qualifier. Kurt Busch is good at Daytona, but he had problems in the Bud Shootout and his qualifier, so his Penske Dodge is something of an unknown quantity.

Figure on a Chevy or a Toyota winning the race, and keep an eye on the No. 22 Toyota of Dave Blaney.