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Wacky Point Spreads and My Prediction
Posted Nov 28, 2009 by Scott Carter
Updated Nov 28, 2009 at 11:13 AM
I’m not a sports gambler other than an occassional bet on the Kentucky Derby or the Super Bowl, but out of habit, I usually take a peek at the point spreads in college football each week.
I usually come pretty close to guessing the spreads in the NFL, but not in college. You just never know what the spreads will be.
Take USF’s game against Miami today at Raymond James Stadium. Before taking a glance this morning, I figured USF by a point or two since the Bulls are at home. Not even close. Miami by 7.
Talent-wise, I don’t see a lot of difference in these two teams. I covered both of their games in Tallahassee against FSU, and USF dominated the Seminoles more than Miami did.
Still, Miami’s prestige obviously carries a lot of weight with the oddsmakers, hence the Canes being a touchdown favorite.
When USF visited FSU in September, the Bulls were 14-1/2 point underdogs. They covered that spread pretty well.
I think they’ll do the same today in what I expect to be a close game.
Here’s my prediction: USF 31, Miami 28. As for that other game up in Gainesville, I’m taking the Gators, 35-14, over the Noles.
Let me hear your predictions ... have a good football Saturday.
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Reader Comments
Por (Dan Alatorre) on November 28, 2009 (Suggest removal)
The Canes are overconfidant, USF wants to show that USF can play anybody. Oddsmakers haven’t watched USF much, and are relying on UM’s reputation - and so are the Canes. In a shootout, USF wins. If it’s a defensive battle, USF wins. If we can pressure Harris, and we can, USF wins big time. If it’s a physical game, Miami wins, and if it’s a finesse game USF wins. Canes do better in cold weather than USF, and right now it’s cold, but it will be warmer at kickoff and cold at the end of the game. If USF loses, I hope they manage to keep it close; if USF wins, I also hope it’s close because it’s more fun to watch but I’d be okay with a blowout. I think Vegas wants you to lose by betting on Miami, and I think USF wins 28-21. GO BULLS!
Suggest removalPor (Dan Alatorre) on November 28, 2009 (Suggest removal)
If USF wins this game, it’s bigger that any bowl game win, because we will have beaten FSU and UM in the same season. That’s big. It’s big to beat either one, but it’s even bigger to beat both in the same season. If USF loses and keeps it close, then it’s just a loss and we’ll try to get ‘em next year. If USF loses by a lot, then it’s a bad loss at the end of the season and hurts our chances of getting any kind of a decent bowl, hurts recruiting, starts the talk about how mediocre we are, etc. So, our guys better play like it’s the SUPER BOWL, because it’s an important game to us and isn’t an important game to Miami. GO BULLS!
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