
Posted Aug 11, 2010 by Scott Carter
Updated Aug 11, 2010 at 03:46 PM
The Bulls return to the practice field at 5:30 this afternoon here in Vero Beach.
But before I head out to cover their eighth practice of fall camp, I’d like to get back to the list of 10 key questions the Bulls face entering the first season of the Skip Holtz Era.
We’ve knocked eight of them out, so now all we’ve got left are the two biggies that will largely shape how Holtz’s first season turns out.
Here is Question No. 2: Can USF avoid the annual second-half slide that has plagued it for the last three seasons.
Most of you know the stat by now: USF is the only Division I team in the nation to start each of the past three seasons with five consecutive wins.
The program’s highlight came in 2007 when USF started 6-0, climbed to No. 2 in the national polls, and then fell back to Earth by going 3-4 in the final seven games.
In the past three seasons after those 5-0 starts, the Bulls are just 10-14. That’s not good enough to win a Big East championship.
When you look at USF’s schedule, we discussed earlier how another 5-0 start is unlikely considering the Bulls travel to Gainesville to face the Gators in their second game.
A 4-1 start? That seems a realistic place for the Bulls to be when they travel to West Virginia on Oct. 14 for a Thursday night game.
USF opens at home against Division I-AA Stony Brook, then goes to Florida before hosting Western Kentucky, Florida Atlantic and Syracuse in successive weeks at Raymond James Stadium.
Regardless of their record, the Bulls will be tested at West Virginia, and then at Cincinnati the next week. Down the stretch, the Bulls host Rutgers, play at Louisiville, host Pittsburgh, at Miami, and finally at home against Connecticut.
So, in their final seven games, the Bulls face six bowl teams from a year ago.
With a relatively young team, how USF does in those first five games is crucial for confidence. The game at Florida should provide a strong indication of how ready the Bulls are to challenge the best teams in the Big East.
Even if they lose at Florida, if the Bulls do start 4-1 heading into that West Virginia game, a 4-3 record over the final seven games would put them at 8-4 and in position to make their sixth consecutive bowl appearance.
What do you think? Can a fast start help this team avoid another second-half slide? Or is another repeat performance likely in store once October rolls around?
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Reader Comments
Por (JOEbull) on August 11, 2010 (Suggest removal)
I say we most likely lose two back-to-back games. WVU/Cincinnati and then Pitt/Miami. Other than those, we avoid a definitive “slump”. However, Scott, has anyone on Holtz’s staff addressed the possible reasons as to why we always hit that mid-season swoon the last three years?
Suggest removalPor (Brian) on August 11, 2010 (Suggest removal)
Yes.
Reason 1, new approach: As we have learned over the past week when players were shocked by 5 min. water breaks, crazy Jim ran this place like a gulag. . . . to include halftime beatdowns for missed blocks. This team will be be more relaxed for the stretch run. Additionally, Skip preaches the radical notion hydration, Crazy Jim thought a foamy bottle of Nesquik was the way to cap off a practice.
Reason 2, new scheme: Teams that commit to the run are likely to improve as the season goes on. . . . and Skip seems to be leaning that way.
Reason 3, the schedule: We finally get to end the season a home since the ACC its calamity of a championship game to Charlotte.
Suggest removalPor (Scott Carter) on August 12, 2010 (Suggest removal)
JOEBull: I know when Holtz took over that was something the staff did take a look at—what caused the second-half slumps…I think that’s why you are seeing breaks during practices, minimal two-a-days during camp, a total new approach in setting pace to camp and practice during the season.
They see this as a way to keep the team fresher for a longer portion of the season. Holtz has said several times he doesn’t want to beat the team up physically before they play a game.
Suggest removalPor (Ken) on August 12, 2010 (Suggest removal)
What has mostly caused the so-called “second half slumps” is the difference in quality between the teams we play in the first portion and second portion of the seasons. The average quality of the teams has been considerably higher in the second half, so, of course, we’ve lost more of those games. Typically, we’ve had 1 or 2 good teams in the first 6 games, and 4 or 5 pretty good teams in the second 6. That’s true again this year, so I predict our first half record will be quite a bit better than our second half record.
Suggest removalPor (dave97) on August 12, 2010 (Suggest removal)
What Ken says is true, we typically play fewer good teams in the first five games. And for the most part the good teams that we do play we have not played before. I think they tend to under estimate just how fast we are and how hard we play. As far as the second have slump goes I blame the coaching more than anything else. In my oppinion we’ve lost numerous games that we should have won because of the play calling. Rather than playing our game they got conservative trying to protect a small lead. Against a good team that is just asking for it.
Suggest removalPor (Dan Alatorre) on August 12, 2010 (Suggest removal)
Ken nailed it dead on - as I have also pointed out many times in the past. We scheduled cupcakes to start he season, and when the cupcakes ran out, the losses started. But I also viewed it as a kind of marketing genius, wherein we’d receive national headlines for the great start, and that probably helped with recruiting. I didn’t like it, but I understood. I hope it changes; I didn’t like all the “mid season meltdown” and “pretenders” talk. Can we play well all the time, and eliminaite cupcakes? We’ll see. Holtz already commented along those lines, so it may not change for a while. He sees value in some of it.
Suggest removalPor (KoozeeKingdom) on August 15, 2010 (Suggest removal)
Dan is right about the marketing genius. Scheduling the cupcakes was a necessary act to allow USF to pile up wins heading into conference play. I think USF is known enough now to discontinue that practice in upcoming schedules. The slide will continue this year, although I think USF will lose more than they win, so hard to really call it a second half slide. USF is one or two key injuries away from a REALLY rough season I think. As I’ve said before, I think it’ll be 4-8 or 5-7 this time around.
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