Pinkos Power Rankings picks Armwood, Plant to narrowly lose state final

Posted Dec 13, 2011 by Bill Ward

Updated Dec 13, 2011 at 12:00 PM

Joe Pinkos’ Power Ratings, a formula based on strength of schedule and margin of victory, says Armwood and Plant are slight underdogs in Saturday’s Class 6A and 8A state championship football games.

The formula gives a greater weight to recent games played. The margins between the two teams playing in this weekend’s state title games is determined simply by subtracting the power rating of the lower-rated team from the power rating of the high-rated squad.

So here is the forecast by Pinkos’ formula, which has been used statewide for several years to rate teams.

Friday, December 16, 2011
CLASS 5A (State Final)
Miami Norland 24 over Wakulla

CLASS 7A (State Final)
Manatee 14 over First Coast

Saturday, December 17, 2011
CLASS 6A (State Final)
Miami Central 3 over Armwood

CLASS 8A (State Final)
Miramar 1 over Plant

FORECAST DERBY
Season Records (through Week 15)
Pinkos 2,312-555, 80.6%
Laz Index 2,216-576, 79.4%
Freeman Ratings (Maxpreps/Calpreps) 1,986-528, 79.0%
Massey Ratings 2,158-590, 78.5%

According to Pinkos: Season to-date, when picks differed, Pinkos’ selections have beat the Massey Ratings 180 of 302 times, topped the Laz Index 166 of 294 times for contests where forecasts differed and bested the Freeman Ratings in 153 of 270 games.

Playoffs
Pinkos 144-36, 80.0%
Laz Index 138-42, 76.7%
Massey Ratings 136-44, 75.6%
Freeman Ratings (Maxpreps/Calpreps) 136-44, 75.6%