There’s an old adage out there – where it is now, I don’t know – that when everyone picks one side of a game, then go with the other. As of midnight Friday, only four of 86 individuals entered in this week’s picks contest believes USF won’t win by more than 14 points.

Go ahead and add me to the list.

I won’t “out” the other four, but no one to this point has been even brave enough – or is it crazy enough? – to pick UCF in an outright upset. I certainly do not think UCF will win, but it could be closer than the majority of USF fans expect.

Most everyone in the contest is picking USF in a blowout (good luck Terry, giving 24 points). However, just last week there were two underdogs that pulled off a comparable upset. Bowling Green, a 13-to-13 1/2 point underdog, won by 10 at Pittsburgh (which all 4,821 of you reminded me that I picked Pitt second in the Big East) and Arkansas State, a 19-to-20 point underdog, won at Texas A&M, 18-14.

UCF’s strong point on defense is its secondary, so if they can slow down the passing game and the running game is sluggish, the Knights could hang around. Hey, except for last year’s seal clubbing, the first two games were decided by 17 and 7 points.

So what the heck, I’ll pick USF to “squeak by” 27-14. And if I’m wrong, don’t worry, it won’t be the last time.

My other picks:

2-Matt Grothe has the most yards rushing. If it’s closer than expected, then I expect Grothe to get as many as 15 carries. He’s gained 173 yards rushing in his last two games vs. UCF. That’s enough for me to take him over Mike Ford and Ben Williams, who are both slowed by ankle injuries, or Moise Plancher.
3-A.J. Love has the most yards receiving. I was torn between picking Love or Hester, but it landed on heads so I’ll go with Love making his first career road start.
4-Grothe will have more than 274 1/2 yards total offense. If he has success on the ground like the past two games, he’ll only need about 200 yards passing.
5-West Virginia does not defeat East Carolina by more than 8 1/2 points. Like UCF vs. USF, ECU has some major revenge against WVU today. The Pirates were thumped at WVU 48-7 last year. As long as the Pirates still aren’t celebrating last week’s Virginia Tech upset, they could keep this within a TD.