My 2009 USF prediction

Posted Sep 5, 2009 by Brett McMurphy

Updated Sep 5, 2009 at 02:03 PM

To Three-peat or not three-peat? That is the question.

For the past two seasons, I’ve been skilled/lucky/fortunate/(fill in your own description here) enough to correctly predict USF’s bowl destinations.

I also pegged USF’s opponent for the 2007 Sun Bowl. Perhaps you’ve heard me mention it previously? Oh you haven’t? Don’t worry, I’ll be dropping copies of that prediction out of a plane flying over Raymond James Stadium tonight to remind you.

To recap my previous predictions:

2008 prediction: 9-3 in St. Pete Bowl vs. East Carolina
USF finished: 8-4 in St. Pete Bowl vs. Memphis

2007 prediction: 9-3 in Sun Bowl vs. Oregon
USF finished: 9-3 Sun Bowl vs. Oregon

But enough about my past accomplishments, it’s time to trudge ahead to 2009. In the past seasons, I was able to find a Beatles song to link to my previous predictions. But I couldn’t find any songs from the Beatles that corresponded with my 2009 prediction – by the way, are those guys ever gonna put out any new songs or just live off their previous hits?

You’re right, I’ve stalled long enough. So here it is: in 2009 USF will finish 8-4 and go to the Papajohns.com Bowl where the Bulls will face Kentucky.

Breaking down the season, I think USF loses at Florida State (sorry Jay), loses at home to either Cincinnati or West Virginia and losses two of three games at Pittsburgh, Rutgers and UConn.

That’s how I get to my four losses.

For USF to do better than that, the Bulls must go unbeaten at home in Big East play (something they’ve never done) and go at least 3-1 on the Big East road (something they’ve never done either), then they could get to 9-10 wins.

On the flip-side, there is a nightmare scenario for USF in which the Bulls would finish 6-6 and not get a bowl bid (they have two Division I-AA opponents, so they must win seven games to be bowl eligible this year). The Bulls would have to be swept by FSU and Miami and then go 3-4 in league play (possible losses: Cincinnati, WVU, Pitt, Rutgers, UConn).

As far as USF’s bowl opponent: Papajohns.com gets the ninth selection from the SEC (10th selection if the SEC gets an at-large BCS team as I expect they will). So there’s a very real possibility, the SEC won’t have 10 bowl eligible teams. If that happens, USF would play a MAC or Sun Belt team in Birmingham. Hopefully this year, the Papajohns.com Bowl will actually have pizza available in the concession stands.

Final picks reminder I promise (until next week): If you haven’t done so, you’ve got til 7 p.m. to enter the Tribune/TBO.com USF picks contest. Also, for those of you who have already entered your picks, you may change them up until 7 p.m.

Please click here to participate. Once on the page, if not registered, on the left side of the page is where new users can register.