I tend not to predict trades very often, but this mock is quite the exception.  I’m predicting 4 swaps here, which would actually be a tame first round compared some past years. 

The deals I’m predicting: 

Rams and Falcons swap #2 and #3
Chiefs and Ravens swap #5 and #8
Pats and Saints swap #7 and #10
Pats and Chiefs swap #10 and #17

*-denotes projected trade

Here we go.

1. Miami Dolphins – Jake Long, OT, Michigan – No suspense here.  The ‘Phins have locked up a stud LT who should be a cornerstone for years.

2. Atlanta Falcons (from STL)* - Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU – Word has it that this trade is tailor-made for both sides, as Atlanta wants Dorsey bad, but knows the Rams will take him if they stay put. Atlanta has the firepower to move up (four of the top 48 picks), and head coach Mike Smith’s defensive mindset makes the Falcons pull the trigger instead of waiting and going with Matt Ryan.

3. St. Louis Rams (from ATL)* - Chris Long, DE, Virginia – The Rams are torn between Long and Dorsey, so trading down one spot might be the best thing for them.  It assures them one of those two players, while also giving them an extra pick in the trade.  Taking Long would allow them to keep Adam Carriker (last year’s 1st-rounder) at DT, where he flourished last year.

4. Oakland Raiders – Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas – Al Davis is a sucker for speed, and especially with Chris Long off the board, McFadden is the obvious choice.

5. Baltimore Ravens (from KC)* - Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College – If Ryan is still available here, look for the Ravens to trade up with the Chiefs, who are more than willing to trade down and still grab the best offensive lineman available.  The Ravens know that the Jets also covet Ryan, which is why they would pull the trigger and move up rather than hoping he falls to them at #8.

6. New York Jets – Vernon Gholston, OLB, Ohio State – If McFadden and Ryan are both gone, look for the Jets to go with Gholston, who could be a monster as an edge rusher in the 3-4.

7. New Orleans Saints (from N.E.)* - Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC – The Saints have made it no secret that they’re willing to trade up for one of the top DTs, and New England definitely wants to trade down.  This swap makes sense for both parties.

8. Kansas City Chiefs (from BAL)* - Branden Albert, OT/G, Virginia – The Chiefs have their pick of Albert and Ryan Clady here, but with Albert’s versatility (can play both guard and tackle), he should be the pick here.

9. Cincinnati Bengals – Keith Rivers, LB, USC – The Bengals definitely want Ellis, but if he’s not there, Rivers should be the pick.  If the Pats stay put and take Rivers, look for the Bengals to go with Clady here.

10. Kansas City Chiefs (from N.E)* - Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida – The Chiefs love Harvey, and are rumored to even be considering him with their higher first round pick, should Chris Long not be available.  The Pats would have no problem trading back again, especially if Rivers is off the board.

11. Buffalo Bills – Devin Thomas, WR, Michigan State – The Bills have Thomas pegged here, and even though it’s a huge reach, don’t expect that to stop the Bills, who have a history of making picks like this (Donte’ Whitner, John McCargo). 

12. Denver Broncos – Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt – While Clady is the better overall prospect, Williams is a better fit for the Broncos’ zone blocking scheme, and should be the pick here.

13. Carolina Panthers – Ryan Clady, OT, Boise State – The Panthers would love Harvey if he falls, but if not, look for them to look for an offensive tackle to play opposite Justin Gross.  Rumor has it that running back is also a possibility here, with Jonathan Stewart being the likely pick if they go that route.

14. Chicago Bears – Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh – The Bears definitely need help at OT, and Otah’s value definitely fits the bill at this pick.  Running back is also not out of the question here.

15. Detroit Lions – Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois – The Lions’ new offensive scheme will call for a lot of ball control, which means they’ll need a tough runner to carry the load.  Mendenhall is the style of runner they’re looking for, though Stewart is also a possibility.

16. Arizona Cardinals – Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy – The Cards need help at corner bad, and in this scenario they have their pick of the litter.  McKelvin has lately separated himself as the top corner in the minds of many teams, so expect him to go here.

17. New England Patriots (from MIN through K.C.)* - Jerod Mayo, LB, Tennessee – The Pats love trading back and are experts at tabbing the right college talent for their schemes.  The club loves how Mayo would fit into their defense as an ILB, and this would be perfect value for them.  Don’t be surprised if they take him earlier if they’re unable to trade down.

18. Houston Texans – Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida – The Texans are desperate for help at corner with Dunta Robinson likely to miss 2008 action due to injury.  They’ll luck out in this scenario, in which only one CB has been chosen. Jenkins has all the tools to be a solid #1 corner early in his career.

19. Philadelphia Eagles – Phillip Merling, DE, Clemson – The Eagles need a receiver in the worst way, but they’ve shown no interest in paying a high price for one.  Andy Reid is known for drafting lineman on both sides of the ball with his higher picks, and Merling’s value makes a lot of sense here.

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville – A lot of Bucs fans won’t like this, but I truly believe that Jon Gruden finally sees his QB of the future in Brohm, who is a perfect fit for the West Coast offense. While WR and CB may be greater, more immediate needs, don’t be shocked to see this happen.

21. Washington Redskins – James Hardy, WR, Indiana – After getting shot down in their attempts to trade for Chad Johnson, the ‘Skins will likely turn to this pick to fill their need for a big, fast receiver. Hardy has some character concerns, but no one can argue his physical ability.

22. Dallas Cowboys (from CLE) – Felix Jones, RB, Arkansas – Jerry Jones is in love with both Hog runners, but barring a blockbuster trade up into the top 5 (which isn’t out of the question with Jerry), expect Felix to be the pick here.

23. Pittsburgh Steelers – Kentwan Balmer, DE, North Carolina – While Balmer played DT at UNC, he’s a perfect fit for the Steelers as a 3-4 DE, which is a huge area of need.

24. Tennessee Titans – Limas Sweed, WR, Texas – While the better value is at CB here (Aqib Talib, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie), which is also an area of need, the Titans need a receiving target who can stretch the field and excel in the red zone.  Sweed, Vince Young’s college teammate, fits that mold and should be the pick here.

25. Seattle Seahawks – Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon – After cutting ties with Shaun Alexander, the ‘Hawks are definitely in need of a playmaker in the backfield.  Stewart’s value fell following his toe surgery, but he’s moving back up draft boards as of late, and could end up being a huge steal this late.

26. Jacksonville Jaguars – Quentin Groves, DE, Auburn – The Jags are in need of a pass-rushing force, and few bring more speed and potential than Groves, who has wreaked havoc in SEC backfields throughout his entire career.

27. San Diego Chargers – Gosder Cherlius, OT, Boston College – The Chargers would love to land Stewart here, but this is probably a better scenario, as OT is a much bigger need at this point.  Cherlius would team up with Marcus McNeill to provide two solid young bookends for the future.

28. Dallas Cowboys – Aqib Talib, CB, Kansas – Talib’s stock has been falling slightly in the last few days, and the Cowboys are definitely in need of some young depth at corner, and even somone who could challenge for a starting spot right away.  WR is tempting here with some good players still on the board, but Talib is the safer pick.

29. San Francisco 49ers (from IND) – DeSean Jackson, WR, California – The 49ers would prefer Cherlius to fall to them here, but I don’t see him getting past San Diego unless Stewart is still available.  The ‘Niners need some serious help at WR, and Jackson is a speedy playmaker who is a fabulous return specialist. 

30. Green Bay Packers – Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, Tennessee State – The Packers are in the market for an eventual replacement for Al Harris and Charles Woodson, who won’t be around too much longer.  Cromartie’s stock has fallen a bit lately due to some health concerns, but his potential is too much to pass up this late.

31. New York Giants – Kenny Phillips, S, Miami – This is definitely the biggest need for the Giants, and they’ll have their pick of the best safeties in this class.  Tyrell Johnson is also a possibility here, as is Dan Connor, who would fill the team’s next-biggest need at OLB.