Here’s my take on how the first round will shake out next Saturday.  I will update with my final mock draft next Friday, April 25th.  This projection does not necessarily reflect who I would take in each instance, but rather who I believe each team will take.

1. Miami Dolphins - Jake Long, OT, Michigan - The Dolphins are already in contract negotiations with Long, and unless something goes really sour, he seems like a lock to be the pick.
2. St. Louis Rams - Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU - The Rams will be picking between Dorsey and Chris Long, with Dorsey likely to win out.  This pick would allow the Rams to move Adam Carriker back out to DE full-time.
3. Atlanta Falcons - Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College - Few teams need a face-lift like the Falcons.  Ryan is a franchise-calibur QB who would instantly give the franchise an improved image, and would fill a major need.
4. Oakland Raiders - Chris Long, DE, Virginia - A dream situation for Raiders fans, and though it will be tough to pass on Darren McFadden, Long is a no-brainer in my opinion.
5. Kansas City Chiefs - Branden Albert, OG/OT, Virginia - I don’t agree with this pick, but everything I’m hearing says the Chiefs will take Albert here.  More and more teams are of the belief that Albert will play OT at the next level, making his stock soar over the past 10 days.
6. New York Jets - Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas - This would be the perfect situation for the Jets, who are in desperate need of a spark on offense.  With the addition of Alan Faneca, the Jets have a solid offensive line in place that would allow McFadden to enjoy immediate success.
7. New England Patriots (from S.F) - Vernon Gholston, DE/OLB, Ohio State - The Pats would definitely prefer to trade down, but if they stay put, Gholston would fit perfectly as an outside linebacker in the Pats 3-4 scheme.
8. Baltimore Ravens - Ryan Clady, OT, Boise State - The Ravens would love to get their collective hands on Matt Ryan, but if he’s gone, look for them to grab some insurance at LT, where Jonathan Ogden’s health/retirement status has left many questions at the position.
9. Cincinnati Bengals - Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC - The Bengals are in love with Ellis, and would even trade up in order to make sure they land him.
10. New Orleans Saints - Keith Rivers, OLB, USC - The Saints also want Ellis, but if he’s gone, Rivers wouldn’t exactly be a terrible consolation prize.  Look for either the Saints or Bengals to trade up with New England to secure Ellis.
11. Buffalo Bills - Devin Thomas, WR, Michigan State - This is another pick that I don’t agree with as far as value is concerned, but from what I hear, the Bills will take Thomas here, despite him only having one year of D1-A experience.  This wouldn’t be the first time the Bills made a head-scratching pick (Donte’ Whitner, John McCargo), so don’t be surprised if they make this pick.
12. Denver Broncos - Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt - Left tackle is the Broncos’ biggest need, and Williams is the best fit for their zone blocking scheme due to his superior footwork and agility.
13. Carolina Panthers - Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida - LT is also a need for the Panthers, but Harvey is just too good to pass up here, especially with Mike Rucker’s age and Julius Peppers heading into the final year of his contract.
14. Chicago Bears - Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh - QB is definitely a need for the Bears, but the value just isn’t there at this point.  Look for them to take the best OT prospect available, which would be Otah in this scenario.
15. Detroit Lions - Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois - This pick looks like a lock at this point.  With a new offensive scheme that emphasizes the running game, Mendenhall’s powerful running style would be a perfect fit in the Motor City.
16. Arizona Cardinals - Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, Tennessee State - The Cards need a corner bad, and they get their pick of the litter at this point in the draft.  Cromartie has the most doubts, but also the most upside.
17. Minnesota Vikings - Phillip Merling, DE, Clemson - The Vikings would love to see Harvey fall this far, and if Carolina doesn’t take him, that’s a likely scenario.  However, even if he’s not there, DE is still a big enough need area that it should be addressed here.  Merling’s only question mark is recovering from a sports hernia injury.
18. Houston Texans - Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy - Corner is the biggest need area for the Texans, and they still have some great options at this point in the draft.  McKelvin would likely get the nod over Mike Jenkins and Aqib Talib, but both are possibilities here.
19. Philadelphia Eagles - Jerod Mayo, OLB, Tennessee - The Eagles desperately need a WR, but I don’t see them taking DeSean Jackson here, and he’s really the only speed option around this pick value.  Mayo is a Top-15 talent, and has experience both inside and outside.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - DeSean Jackson, WR, California - WR is easily the biggest need for the Bucs, and while Jackson lacks size/bulk, he’s an electrifying playmaker who dazzles in the return game, as well.
21. Washington Redskins - James Hardy, WR, Indiana - The ‘Skins need a WR, as well, and while Hardy may not be the best available, his combination of size and particularly speed is what Washington is after.
22. Dallas Cowboys (from CLE) - Felix Jones, RB, Arkansas - The smarter move would be to take Jenkins or Talib (both of whom would be steals at this point), but Jerry Jones is so in love with Felix that he’ll end up taking him here, even though he’d mostlikely be there at #28 when the ‘Boys pick again.
23. Pittsburgh Steelers - Kentwan Balmer, DT, North Carolina - Balmer played DT at UNC, but he’s a perfect fit at DE in the Steelers’ 3-4 scheme and a perfect value here, as well.
24. Tennessee Titans - Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida - WR is the bigger need, but the value at CB is just too much to pass up if things shake out like this.  Jenkins would start immediately and help Titans fans forget all about Pac Man Jones.
25. Seattle Seahawks - Fred Davis, TE, USC - The ‘Hawks have been searching for a pass-catching TE who can stretch the field, but also stay out of trouble while off of it (Jerramy Stevens, anyone?).  Davis is a playmaker who excels in the red zone as well as after the catch.
26. Jacksonville Jaguars - Calais Campbell, DE/DT, Miami - The Jags need help at every spot on the defensive line, which makes Campbell, who can play either end or tackle, an attractive prospect here.
27. San Diego Chargers - Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon - This is an interesting pick.  RT is the only real need area for the Chargers, and BC’s Gosder Cherilus is still available and is a good value here.  However, losing Michael Turner to free agency has left San Diego without a reliable option to back up LaDainian Tomlinson.  Stewart is recovering from toe surgery, which has caused his stock to drop, but the Chargers have the luxury of being patient with him while he heals, meaning they could end up with a serious steal when he returns to full strength.
28. Dallas Cowboys - Aqib Talib, CB, Kansas - If Dallas passes on a top CB at #22, they hope this scenario takes place, which still leaves them with Talib or Jenkins here.  Talib’s mechanics and footwork are suspect, but he’s an instinctive corner with a nose for the ball who could start immediately.
29. San Francisco 49ers (from IND) - Gosder Cherilus, OT, Boston College - RT is the top need for the ‘Niners, making this a perfect scenario for them.  Cherilus is a great value here and would team up Joe Staley to give the team two solid young bookends.
30. Green Bay Packers - Brandon Flowers, CB, Virginia Tech - The Packers’ biggest need is at CB, and Flowers is likely to be the pick here.
31. New York Giants - Kenny Phillips, S, Miami - The Giants are in need of a replacement for Gibril Wilson, who left via free agency.  Phillips is the best safety available, and would make perfect sense here.