There are definitely a few surprises here in my first mock of this year’s first round.  I don’t project trades, but you can bet that if Stafford starts to slip, someone will jump up and grab him.

Here we go.

1. Detroit Lions – Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia – After all is said and done, this will be the pick for the Lions.  Jason Smith has more upside, but Monroe is the safest pick.  This will resemble last year when the Dolphins took the sure thing in Jake Long, and it turned out to be a great decision.  The Lions will then look to trade up from the 20th pick for either Stafford or Sanchez.

2. St. Louis Rams – Jason Smith, OT, Baylor – This is the biggest need for the Rams, and Smith is a nasty force who will keep Marc Bulger on his feet.

3. Kansas City Chiefs – Aaron Curry, OLB, Wake Forest – This will be a no-brainer for the Chiefs, who will get arguably the best overall player in the draft at the third pick.

4. Seattle Seahawks – B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College – Signing Colin Cole was a start, but the Seahawks still need more help in the middle of the defensive line.  Raji is a massive run stuffer who will free up the back seven to make more plays.

5. Cleveland Browns – Brian Orakpo, DE/OLB, Texas – Orakpo will serve as a stand-up edge rusher in the Browns’ 3-4 scheme, and will serve as a solid companion to Kam Wimbley.  Though scouts have given conflicting reports regarding Orakpo’s consistency and actual football skills, Orakpo’s pure phyiscal ability will make him too much for a 3-4 team to pass up.

6. Cincinnati Bengals – Andre Smith, OT, Alabama – Smith is a superior talent with some potentially serious off-field questions…sounds like a perfect recipe for the Bengals’ top pick.  The Bengals need help along the entire offensive line, and Smith could be a dominant force…if he wants to.

7. Oakland Raiders – Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech – The Raiders will benefit from teams’ concerns about Crabtree’s timed speed and recovery from foot surgery, ending up stealing arguably the best player in the draft. 

8. Jacksonville Jaguars – Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri – The writing is on the wall for this pick.  Reggie Williams hasn’t been re-signed, Matt Jones was finally cut, and it’s time for the Jags to get a difference maker who can stretch the field.  Maclin is a lightning bolt of a playmaker, and will make an immediate impact as both a receiver and a return specialist.

9. Green Bay Packers – Aaron Maybin, DE/OLB, Penn State – Thanks to a superb showing at his pro day, Maybin could find himself in the top 10.  The Packers are switching to a 3-4, and Maybin’s ability to rush the passer make him a perfect fit as an edge rusher.

10. San Francisco 49ers – Mark Sanchez, QB, USC – If the Lions pass on Stafford, don’t be surprised to see Sanchez go ahead of him.  Sanchez is a more complete player and is more adept at the mental aspect of the game, thus making the 49ers keep Sanchez close to home.

11. Buffalo Bills – Everette Brown, DE, Florida State – The Bills have needs at both OLB and DE, and Brown could actually end up filling either one.  He has superb pass rushing skills, but his lack of size could make him a better fit at linebacker.  Either way, the Bills would do well to take him at this spot.

12. Denver Broncos – Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU – If Stafford is available, you can expect the rumors to fly.  The truth is, taking Stafford here would ensure that the Broncos get low-balled like crazy in trying to move Jay Cutler.  Denver is better off taking a player who fits in perfectly as a 3-4 DE, rather than continuing to make a circus out of their QB situation.

13. Washington Redskins – Michael Oher, OT, Mississippi – The ‘Skins are along the offensive line, and Oher could fit in immediately at either tackle spot.

14. New Orleans Saints – Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State – The defensive backfield continues to be the Saints’ biggest area of need, and thanks for sub-par 40 times at both the combine and his pro day, a top talent in Jenkins could fall right into their lap.

15. Houston Texans – Brian Cushing, OLB, USC – The Texans lack a legitimate force at either of the outside linebacker spots, and Cushing’s instinctive, competitive approach to the game would fit perfectly in Houston.

16. San Diego Chargers – Rey Maualuga, ILB, USC – This pick is the perfect fit for the Chargers, as Maualuga fills the hole at ILB opposite Stephen Cooper, which is one of the Chargers’ few glaring needs.

17. New York Jets – Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia – If Stafford fell past the 49ers, the Jets would immediately work the jump up and snatch him.  However, since I don’t predict trades, Stafford falls all the way to this pick.

18. Chicago Bears – Percy Harvin, WR, Florida – The Bears might go with Darrius Heyward-Bey here, considering his size advantage, but the versatility and toughness that Harvin brings might be too much for them to pass up.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Vontae’ Davis, CB, Illinois – Much like his brother (49ers TE Vernon Davis), Davis possesses elite physical skills, while lacking in effort and consistency.  In the end, Davis’ potential might be too much for the Bucs to pass on as they reload their defense.

20. Detroit Lions (from DAL) – Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas State – The Lions will definitely be in the mix to trade up for Stafford if he falls that far, but if they remain at this pick, Freeman should still be available.  This situation would be similar to when the Browns took Joe Thomas with their top pick, then traded up to end Brady Quinn’s freefall. 

21. Philadelphia Eagles – Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State – The Eagles are in desperate need of a TE, and Pettigrew is tops in this year’s class, balancing great receiving skills with the ability to hold his own as a blocker.

22. Minnesota Vikings – Eben Britton, OT, Arizona – The Vikings could use an upgrade at right tackle, and while Britton played on the left side in college, he projects better as an NFL right tackle and would be a solid pick here.

23. New England Patriots – Connor Barwin, DE/OLB/TE, Cincinnati – One of the most intriguing players in the draft, Barwin thrilled scouts at his Pro Day last week, running a 4.47 40, while measuring 6-4, 256.  Bill Belichick would have a new and much improved version of Mike Vrabel, as Barwin has experience at TE, LB, and DE, and worked out for scouts at all three positions. 

24. Atlanta Falcons – Robert Ayers, DE, Tennessee – The Falcons need a pass-rushing presence to divert attention away from John Abraham, and first-round bust Jamaal Anderson has proved he’s not the answer.  Ayers dominated the competition during Senior Bowl week, and could wreak havoc if teams continue to double-team Abraham.

25. Miami Dolphins – Clay Matthews, OLB, USC – A classic Parcells-type player, Matthews is a former walk-on whose blue collar work ethic will push for immediate playing time as a 3-4 OLB. 

26. Baltimore Ravens – Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland – Joe Flacco needs weapons, and Heyward-Bey’s combination of size and speed could help Flacco improve even more rapidly over the next few years.

27. Indianapolis Colts – Peria Jerry, DT – Mississippi – Defensive tackle is by far the biggest need for the Colts, and thankfully, Jerry fits their scheme perfectly and should be available.

28. Philadelphia Eagles (from CAR) – Chris “Beanie” Wells, RB, Ohio State – It’s no secret that the Eagles need a bigger back to take some of the pounding away from Brian Westbrook.  Wells would be a great value this late, and could be a premier back if he can stay healthy.

29. New York Giants – Kenny Britt, WR, Rutgers – Though Hakeem Nicks might be the better overall player, Britt’s size and prowess in the red zone would do more to help ease the absence of Plaxico Burress.

30. Tennessee Titans – D.J. Moore, CB, Vanderbilt – It’s no secret that the Titans need a #1 WR badly, but they’ve proven over time that they won’t take one in the first round.  Moore is a local product who could push to start immediately while also contributing in the return game, helping to alleviate the loss of free agent Chris Carr.

31. Arizona Cardinals – Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia – The Cardinals are definitely in the market for a RB with this pick, and they should get their man here.  If Moreno and Wells happen to be gone, look for Connecticut’s Donald Brown to be the pick.

32. Pittsburgh Steelers – Alphonso Smith, CB, Wake Forest – After losing Bryant McFadden to free agency, corner becomes a more glaring need than the interior of the offensive line.  While Smith is undersized at just 5-9, his ball skills and instincts should make him a solid pick here.