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Anyone who knows anything about my past years in draft analysis knows how much stock I put in prospects’ personal workout performances: not much. The fact that a player doesn’t run a 4.3 40 or doesn’t bench press 225 pounds enough times to satisfy the talking stopwatch/clipboard holders doesn’t hold too much weight when it comes to how I evaluate a player’s potential at the next level.
The case of Oklahoma WR Malcolm Kelly is no exception. Draft “experts” from all corners of the NFL universe have been up in arms about Kelly’s draft stock ever since his pro day last week, during which he posted 40 times in the 4.7 range.
While there’s definitely some value to combine and pro day results, the draft culture has grown to overvalue them considerably over the last 5-10 years. How many times have we seen a player blow scouts away with his measurables, only to fall flat on his face once he actually laces ‘em up and hits the gridiron? Players like Troy Williamson (7th overall pick in the 2005 Draft by the Vikings), whose draft stock soared after he ran in the low 4.3s at the combine, are perfect examples of players whose ability to light up a stopwatch made scouts forget about their inability to light up a scoreboard. In three seasons with Minnesota, Williamson caught just 79 passes for 1,067 yards and only 3 touchdowns. Those are numbers that teams would like to see out of their 7th overall pick in their rookie season, perhaps, but over three years? Williamson has since been released by the Vikings, signing as a free agent with Jacksonville this offseason.
There are other players who justify the other side of this coin. Jerry Rice didn’t exactly have scouts drooling when he ran in the 4.6-4.7 range leading up to the draft. However, as we all know, Rice went on to become the greatest receiver in the history of the game. Kelly may not be the next Rice, but the point is that hard work and heart aren’t measurable, and they are aspects of a player that are equally, if not more important, than speed and strength.
It comes down to one thing: is this player a good football player? When they play the game between the lines, do they deliver? Malcolm Kelly has proved during his career at Oklahoma that he can answer yes to both of those questions. Kelly has great size and boasts some of the best hands in this year’s receiver class. And while Kelly’s timed speed doesn’t impress, one must look at the game film to realize that he still has the ability to separate from coverage and stretch the field. Kelly remains one of the top receivers in this class, and should be considered by any team who needs a WR who picks anywhere from the middle of the first round on.
There are numerous stories like this every year, and there are plenty more this year. The best thing scouts can do for their teams is to not get caught up in vertical jumps and 3-cone shuttle times, instead looking at whether or not a prospect is the best football player for their franchise.
Posted by Cassidy, Charlotte, NC on 04/14 at 11:26 AM
Guess who else was a good football player and delivered: Pacman Jones.
The guy blamed OU coaching staff for sabotaging him for leaving early.
Who wants to pay millions in guaranteed money to a whiner?
This article is naive at best.
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Posted by Luke Easterling, Tampa, FL on 04/14 at 04:21 PM
Pac Man’s situation (and problems) are hardly comparable to Kelly’s. My only aim in this article was to remind people that a slow 40 time doesn’t mean a player should be less valuable. Making excuses, however, is not something that should encourage NFL scouts, so I wholeheartedly agree with you on that front.