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Posted Mar 30, 2009 by Roy Cummings
Updated Mar 30, 2009 at 09:17 AM
By ROY CUMMINGS
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TAMPA – Wes Bunting of the National Football Post has hit on something very interesting in regards to the evaluation of college quarterbacks heading to the NFL.
To summarize quickly, Bunting says it’s a good bet that any college quarterback who didn’t hit on at least 60 percent of his passes during his last year in college will struggle in the NFL.
To back his point, Bunting provides a list of NFL quarterbacks recently drafted in the first round who didn’t hit that seemingly magical 60 percent mark. Among them: Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith, Cade McNown, Michael Vick and Joey Harrington.
Bunting goes on to list the quarterbacks expected to go in the first round of this year’s draft. Two - Mark Sanchez of USC and Matthew Stafford of Georgia - completed more than 60 percent of their passes last year.
The one who didn’t was Josh Freeman of Kansas State. Freeman, of course, is the quarterback the Bucs have been linked to. For those who still believe the Bucs will draft Freeman, here’s more to fuel your argument against it.
To read the whole story, follow this link: http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/2009/03/behind-the-stats-qb-completion-percentage/
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Reader Comments
Por (flajoe491) on March 30, 2009 (Suggest removal)
Freeman is no franchise QB go for Defense or a wide reciever in round one.
Suggest removalPor (ref813) on March 30, 2009 (Suggest removal)
I don’t need anymore reasons not to want him. He isn’t a 1st round QB no matter how you look at it. The only reason he’s getting moved up so far is because of the lack of depth at QB. You don’t draft any player in the first if you know there is basically no chance he could contribute his 1st year. QBs have usually been allowed to develop, but we learned last year that it doesn’t have to be that way. Any of the top 3 QBs in 2010 has some chance of starting his first year. Freeman doesn’t. End of story. D line or WR. I don’t want to hear Freeman’s name until he gets drafted in the 3rd where he belongs. If someone else wants to take him earlier, that’s not our problem.
Suggest removalPor (Rudy Carter) on March 30, 2009 (Suggest removal)
I am not really sure completion percentage is a true indicator of success or failure in the NFL For example, former bucs quarter Bruce Gradkowski has a 70.7% career pass completion percentage when he was drafted in 2006—at the time, that was best among NCAA quarterbacks in 2005. I think the bucs we be better served by drafting a defensive tackle. Why draft a quarterback who cannot provide immediate help to the team?
Rudy
Suggest removalPor (oar) on March 30, 2009 (Suggest removal)
Freeman had a losing record as a starter(14-18), that’s all I need to know!
Suggest removalOne word for draft - Defense - please.
Por (:PapaJohn) on March 30, 2009 (Suggest removal)
I hope the Bucs don’t draft him just b/c Morris knew him while at K-State.
Suggest removalPor (ref813) on March 30, 2009 (Suggest removal)
I won’t abandon our team no matter what, but it’s going to be awfully weird watching them next year if things go the way it looks like they will go. We’ll probably be scoring over 30 a lot more and giving up that much a lot more than we have in recent memory. I really hope they can at least keep the D in the top 15. It’s hard to watch our once proud D looking the way it looked in the last 4 games. If they would sign Holt, we could be pretty confident that they would draft D in 1 and 3 (and 2 if we could get one somehow). Whoever said Holt signed already was wrong. He hasn’t. He would be a great replacement for Hilliard.
Suggest removalPor (cval) on March 30, 2009 (Suggest removal)
Thankfully, Bucs scouts are not as willfully ignorant as “OAR”. They look at a lot more than the team record. They look at film, stats, decisions, technique, etc. On drafting, if a guy you want in the second rd won’t be there, of course you draft in the 1st rd if he’s your “guy”. I would prefer a DT in the 1st, but it sure looks like we need to warm up to the idea of a 4th QB. I’d take Freeman over White or the others. Actually, 2010 should have more quality QB’s.
Suggest removalPor (Tony_Buc) on March 30, 2009 (Suggest removal)
just another reason to draft defense CVAL!
Suggest removalu always trying to call people out
Por (Earl) on March 30, 2009 (Suggest removal)
Would we even be having this conversation if our DEFENSE hadn’t tanked the last 4 games of the year ??
Suggest removalMy college coach used to say “if you score 65 points are you guaranted a win ? NO…but if your defense doesn’t let them score, you will not lose the game “. But, I think Raheem is being used…1 year and out….I think the owners have their eye on “someone else” for the long haul.
Por (oar) on March 30, 2009 (Suggest removal)
c-val, ok how about 44tds to 34ints over 32 games, or 252 yds/game or 7 yds/pass avg. How bout those numbers, you a—hole.
Suggest removalI don’t care if a qb throws for 400 yds a game or 4 tds, if you don’t win it isn’t worth it!
Por (Steve Harris) on March 30, 2009 (Suggest removal)
Wait until his Wunderlich score comes out, that will give another reason not to draft him.
Suggest removalPor (philentrek) on March 30, 2009 (Suggest removal)
the wonderlic scores are out on him.
stafford-38
sanchez-28
freeman-27
i found it here: http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/football/bears/chi-22-pompei-scout-mar22,0,7151782.story
Suggest removalPor (:PapaJohn) on March 30, 2009 (Suggest removal)
44 TDS to 34 INTS in his career? That is not a good ratio and something to be worrisome about.
He was also playing Big 12 which everyone knows now had inflated offense stats due to weak defenses.
Suggest removalPor (Sains fan) on March 30, 2009 (Suggest removal)
ref813,
Being an NFC south fan, too, I can’t picture the Bucs not having a smash mouth defense. I agree, it will be weird if the Bucs start to look more like the Saints. Scoring 30 points won’t do a team any good if they can’t stop the others from scoring 30 too.
I think the Bucs should run after Cutler.
Suggest removalPor (Gerry costi) on March 30, 2009 (Suggest removal)
I think the Bucs should go DE/DT in first round, Then QB in the 3rd ( Hoyer from Michigan State) then WR in the 4th ( Tiquan Underwood from Rutgers) then start to fill roster with back ups
Suggest removalPor (RJ) on March 30, 2009 (Suggest removal)
Every Mock Draft has the Bucs taking Freeman in the first round except for one or 2 recently. Freeman will probably be available in round 2. Trade down and get something for the 19th pick or do something sensible and take a Defensive Lineman. Don’t take him at 19 please!
Suggest removalPor (Pat Kiernan) on March 30, 2009 (Suggest removal)
Guys, This is an easy one, so let’s please not mess it up. This is absolutely NOT the year to draft a QB. Next year is when there will be up to 7 first round worthy QBs coming out, thus the time to choose a franchise QB.Pick an under-tackle, trade down, or take the best available player but I beg of you, PLEASE do not take a QB with our 19th pick.
Suggest removalPor (:PapaJohn) on March 30, 2009 (Suggest removal)
Good point Pat.
I know half the people here will hate me for saying this but, can anyone forsee Tebow-Harvin reuniting here in 2010?
Suggest removalPor (Danny Webb) on March 30, 2009 (Suggest removal)
I agree that Freeman is not a 1st rd pick. Having had to watch his career at K-state it became painfully obvoius that he did not read defenses well and often made horrible decisions with the ball. He was not even the best QB at K-State, but the former coach ran off all of his other QB`s and was left with Freeman. If the Bucs draft this kid they will quickly understand how San Diego felt after the Leaf fiasco.
Suggest removalPor (ref813) on March 30, 2009 (Suggest removal)
This would be such a bad pick, Morris must just be acting interested to throw people off. If I hear “With the 19th pick, TB…Freeman” I’m going to express more outrage than people did after Brooks got cut.
Suggest removalWriters, if you happen to get any chance to speak with the people in charge at One Buc, please tell them the fans don’t want this guy. We’ll wait a year if we have to. Taking this guy with our only pick in the first 84 would set us back a good bit. I can’t think of a dumber pick that people would actually buy into. The “experts” are insulting our team by assuming we would take this guy.
Por (Jim Kinzer) on March 30, 2009 (Suggest removal)
If Mel(HAIR)Kiper says that we need to draft him, we definitely should not draft him, he is wrong much more than he is right!
Suggest removalPor (George L Hicks) on March 30, 2009 (Suggest removal)
I think that Tampa should pass on Josh Freeman. If he is still there, draft him with the third pick, If he is not there. Then I would wait until the 7th round. It seems that the qb that could be a running and passing QB is Missouri Chase Daniels, That is like Florida Qb that will be coming out next year. I think that the DT from Ole Miss would be the perfect Fit or that DE from Tenn. I think Tampa would be better not giving up alot for that QB.The QB in the driver seat now would fit the bucs scheme.
Suggest removalPor (BucFandango) on March 30, 2009 (Suggest removal)
The Bucs have cut a few very good players. They may have been older vets, but they were still very good. Freeman is not great, and barely good. There is no way the Bucs are going to WASTE a 1’st round pick on Freeman. I really believe they are trying to fill voids with top notch players, and this guy isn’t it. So I say that everyone who has Freeman going to the Bucs at 19 is clueless. It will not happen. I don’t think any other team is that stupid either. Free’ll be lucky to go in the 3’rd. Wes Bunting is on the money with his report.
Suggest removalPor (buc40) on March 30, 2009 (Suggest removal)
Freeman is not the man. 2009 draft is just short on quality QB’s, wait till next year’s draft. We need to draft Perry out of Ole Miss and then get WR later in the 3rd. I would still like to get Cutler, but I don’t think we have a chance. GO BUCS!!!!
Suggest removalPor (patrick dotson) on March 30, 2009 (Suggest removal)
i personal think it would be a mistake to draft a qb in the first round…we have bigger needs than a qb…wr and dt to me is more of a issue…harvin with his skill would be a better pick(and im a nole fan)...i honestly feel luke deserves his chance just like graham got his…we have a good oline and luke does have a arm…if for some reason he falls to us…i would like to see B.J. Raji dt from boston college or Peria Jerry from penn state in a bucs uniform…
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