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Forum: Talk Bulls
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OK, I’ll try to clarify the Big East bowl situation and how it relates to USF. First off, Jim Johnson, you are correct that there is a two-win rule concerning Notre Dame for both the Gator and Sun Bowls (I thought it only applied to Gator, but it’s also for Sun). However, the two-win rule is not officially in writing – it’s “understood” between the Big East and it’s bowls – so I guess if the Sun Bowl wants 6-6 Notre Dame, they technically could file a lawsuit.
Teams guaranteed Big East bowls: Cincinnati (8-2), Pitt (7-2), UConn (7-3).
Teams who need to get 7th win to lock in Big East bowl:
WVU (6-3) at Louisville Nov. 22; at Pitt Nov. 28, vs. USF Dec. 6
USF (6-4) vs. UConn Nov. 23; at WVU, Dec. 6
Rutgers (5-5) vs. Army Nov. 22; vs. Louisville Dec. 4
Louisville (5-5) vs. WVU Nov. 22, at Rutgers Dec. 4
So here’s how the Big East bowls shake down.
Scenario 1: USF finishes 8-4 or 7-5. The Bulls go to the St. Pete Bowl. It doesn’t matter what happens with any other Big East teams winning or losing. It’s that simple: a 7 or 8-win USF goes to St. Pete Bowl. USF bowl: St. Pete
Scenario 2a: USF finishes 6-6, Rutgers finishes 7-5, Notre Dame finishes 7-5 and the best available Big East non-champion team has nine wins or less. That means Notre Dame would be eligible for the Gator (which picks first between Big East/Notre Dame and Big 12) or Sun Bowls (which picks what other conference Gator doesn’t). The Gator, which has a lot of attractive Big 12 teams to consider, may skip on 7-5 Notre Dame, but the Sun Bowl won’t. That leaves five Big East bowls (BCS, Meineke Car Care, International, Papajohns.com and St. Pete). Cincinnati (8-2), Pittsburgh (7-2), UConn (7-3) and West Virginia (6-3, but if USF is 6-6, that means WVU got a win No. 7) and Rutgers (7-5) would be guaranteed Big East bowls. USF could not go a Big East bowl and would have to be chosen by a non-Big East bowl, whose conference did not have enough qualifying teams. USF bowl: Not eligible for Big East bowl, would have to go to non-Big East bowl. Probably sitting at home for the holidays.
Scenario 2b: USF finishes 6-6, Rutgers finishes 6-6, Notre Dame finishes 7-5 and the best available Big East non-champion team has nine wins. Everything is the same as above, except that Big East would have to decide to fill its final bowl game – either Papajohns.com, International or St. Pete – with either Rutgers or USF. There is no pecking order between those three bowls, so none of them have the “last pick.” The Big East would likely work with the bowls and another non-Big East bowl to guarantee a spot for both USF and Rutgers. In this scenario, the Big East, I think, might keep USF in St. Pete and put Rutgers in a non-Big East bowl, if possible. If Louisville finishes 6-6, the league would have to chose between USF, UL and RU and find spots for the other two in non-Big East bowls. USF bowl: Probably St. Pete.
Scenario 3a: USF finishes 6-6, Rutgers finishes 7-5, Notre Dame (6-6 or 7-5) finishes three wins behind the best available Big East non-champion team. This scenario means Notre Dame would not take a Big East bowl. The Gator/Sun would be forced to take a Big East team, making it six Big East bowls for six Big East teams: Cincy, Pitt, UConn, WVU, Rutgers and USF. USF bowl:: St. Pete.
Scenario 3b: USF finishes 6-6, Rutgers finishes 6-6, Louisville finishes 6-6, Notre Dame (6-6 or 7-5) finishes three wins behind the best available Big East non-champion team. The same as Scenario 3a, except the Big East would have to pick between USF, UL and RU (head-to-head games don’t matter) for two of the final three bowls. This one would be a mess. It would depend whom you think would be champion and picked by Gator/Sun and Meineke. After that you would have one remaining 7-win or better team to send to International, Papajohns.com or St. Pete (remember no pecking order). After that team is selected, the league would have three teams – USF, RU, and UL for two bowl slots. Don’t know if USF would be the automatic pick for St. Pete coming in on a five game losing streak. USF bowl: St. Pete, but least confident about this one than the other picks.
I’m sure there are some other scenarios I left out, if so, send em my way and I’ll try to decipher them. But it’s very simple for USF: win one of final two games and the Bulls are headed to St. Pete. Lose both games and they likely will stay home (unless Rutgers loses to both Army and Louisville).
Posted by Brett McMurphy, on 11/18 at 10:34 AM
Dan, Canales makes $150,000 this year at USF (Gregory makes $160,000). No, I don’t think USF would increase Canales’ salary another $100,000. Even so, I think most assistants eventually want to be a head coach. Canales is an alum of Utah State, so there’s a special tie there. If he was offered the USU job, I think he would take it, but again, Utah State just got rid of its coach a couple days ago so I’m sure no one has been offered anything yet.
Posted by Brett McMurphy, on 11/18 at 10:29 AM
Dan, because of ticket sales, that’s why USF will get the St. Pete Bowl bid - if eligible. Again, if USF gets to seven wins, they’re a lock for St. Pete. If they finish 6-6, Rutgers gets to seven wins and Notre Dame goes to the Gator or Sun Bowl, USF is not eligible for the St. Pete Bowl because the St. Pete Bowl will have to select a seven-win team.
Posted by Dan, Tampa on 11/18 at 08:03 AM
Brett, not sure what Canales makes at USF, but according to ESPN: Guy made $210,000 at Utah State + radio, appearances, sports camps, stipends and incentives for winning. Probably $250-300k or more. Don’t see USF parting with that kind of cash to keep Canales, do you?
Posted by Dan, Tampa on 11/18 at 07:21 AM
Brett, a few weeks ago USF sent out “preference package ticket selection” mailers to season ticket holders. We had to list and send back our committments for a number of seats for about 9 choices of bowl games, from national championship on down. This was before our losing streak started. I put 8 for St Pete bowl because it is close and I could get people to take the tickets, but 0 for International Bowl because of the location, date, and weather there. I believe we had to “hard commit” to those tickets if we became eligible. You could probably find out from USF how many committed to St Pete Bowl, but would that number help sway anybody in the selection crew?
Posted by Dan, Tampa on 11/18 at 07:14 AM
Brett, thanks for making it simple: USF has to WIN something, and playing in the cold in Dec at WVa doesn’t sound like a good idea. We also want UL, RU and WVa to lose as many as possible, and ND to lose as well.
Any chance we keep Canales, in ANY capacity? Would Leavitt boot Gregory to keep/promote Canales? Would Canales stay if GG were fired?
Posted by Brett McMurphy, on 11/17 at 09:53 PM
Jim, the one thing is that the 2005 rule has expired. This is the third year of a four-year deal with Big East/Big 12/Gator/Sun, I’m sure it’s been tweaked. Also, I didn’t see the story, but if it says the Gator would take 9-3 Pitt over 7-5 Notre Dame. That’s a choice, not a requirement. The Gator COULD take ND if it wanted - that’s how it was explained to me by a Big East official - if ND is within two overall wins of a Big East team. Also, I checked with Big East, Notre Dame is only eligible for Gator/Sun and can not go to any other Big East bowls as the Big East rep.
Posted by Jim Johnson, Tampa, FL on 11/17 at 08:52 PM
And couldn’t Notre Dame go to another Big East bowl beyond Gator/Sun?
Why couldn’t Notre Dame head to Charlotte?
Posted by Jim Johnson, Tampa, FL on 11/17 at 08:48 PM
The Times Union article would contradict your post:
A 9-3 “runner-up” Pittsburgh would go to the Gator Bowl over a 7-5 Notre Dame based on the article from Jacksonville.
Can you clarify?
Posted by Jim Johnson, Tampa, FL on 11/17 at 08:47 PM
I appreciate the “shoutout,” but I’m confused about the Notre Dame rule. Here is the source I’ve been using regarding the “two-win” rule—from the Florida Times-Union in 2005:
If the Irish lose to the Vols and finish 8-3, the Gator Bowl can exercise a clause in its contract and by-pass the first eligible Big East team—provided Notre Dame isn’t more than one game worse than the Big East team in the overall won-loss standings.
For example, an 8-3 Notre Dame team can be selected over a 9-2 Big East team. If Notre Dame isn’t selected for a BCS bowl and is invited by the Gator Bowl, it can’t turn down the invitation.
http://www.jacksonville.com/tu-online/stories/110305/col_20197362.shtml
Posted by Brett McMurphy, on 11/17 at 05:34 PM
Sanjay, 68 teams get bowl bids and there are currently 60 bowl eligible teams. Taking a quick look at the W/L records, there are about 23-24 more teams with four or five wins that mathematically can get to six wins. Obviously all of them won’t, but I do think there will definitely be more than 68 bowl eligible teams. Also, USF obviously can’t take certain bowl spots from SEC in Papajohns or C-USA in St. Pete to play a Big East team. Again, I’m not sure how attractive a team closing 0-5 would be to a bowl. If USF loses out, we’ll certainly find out.
Posted by Brett McMurphy, on 11/17 at 05:25 PM
Joey, you’re right. USF officially has “distributed” 27,879 season tickets this year - meaning some, don’t know how many, were given away to sponsors, etc. Sorry about the 24K reference. I was going off my memory and you can see how good my ... what was the question again? Oh yeah, Scenario 2a. In that one, I’m saying that Notre Dame will be within two wins of the best available Big East squad and therefore will get the Sun/Gator bid, taking away a Big East bowl.
Posted by DonG, Madeira Beach on 11/17 at 05:17 PM
Brett, thanks for the incredible job of putting that mess together for all of us! A lot of options, indeed. BLUF (bottomline upfront), Bulls have to win and it would seem that winning at home would be easier than travel in Dec to WVA. However, with that said and some recent home losses, homefield advantage isn’t guaranteed at all for this team. I’ll be there this Sunday for UCONN game and hopefully we get’er done then!? Only then will I commit to St. Pete Bowl tickets and no sooner.
Posted by Joey, Boston on 11/17 at 04:40 PM
Brett,
I thought we sold 27k+ season tickets? No?
Also, did you mean to say less than 9 wins (or 8 or less wins) for Scenario 2a? Wouldn’t that make more sense since there is a two-win rule concerning Notre Dame for both the Gator and Sun Bowls?
Posted by Sanjay, on 11/17 at 04:35 PM
Brett, it may be unusual if a non-BE bowl wanted to take USF, but given the real possibility of not enough eligible teams I think USF gets a bowl bid somewhere. I think the SEC will ony have 8 eligible teams, and if they get 2 BCS teams then they will have 2 slots open. CUSA probably will not have enough eligible either.
Posted by Brett McMurphy, on 11/17 at 04:09 PM
Eddie, I think that’s why USF is so attractive for St. Pete - the proximity and with a season ticket base of 24,000, USF, you would think, would have no trouble selling out its allotment in what would be basically a neutral site home game. However, if USF goes 6-6 and doesn’t get a Big East bowl, for a non-Big East bowl to take USF, they would be taking a team ending year 0-5, a team that hasn’t travelled well to their past three bowls (not taking more than a couple thousand and that was during winning seasons) and had very high expectations unfulfilled. It would have to be a very unique circumstance for 6-6 USF to get a non-Big East bowl.
Posted by Eddie Laugen, Dunedin, FL on 11/17 at 03:55 PM
Brett,
How much of a role do you think home attendance/fan support for the USF Bulls plays in getting a bowl game? Can it hurt us if we’re on the bubble?
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Posted by Dan, Tampa on 11/18 at 01:00 PM
If Canales has a shot, he’s gone - and we’re screwed. On 2/23 you wrote about the salaries of assistants at USF, FSU and UF, and it was largely a feature of football program revenues that allowed UF to pay so much, and USF by comparison to pay so little (our revenue at $28 mil was about 1/4 of UF’s). Even if Canales didn’t want to be a head coach, $300k vs $150k? It’s not a contest. Plus he DOES get to be THE MAN. Gone, baby, gone. What the heck are we gonna do now? We still fire GG, that’s for sure.