Class 6A-6 playoff scenarios, Sunlake on the brink, and why Land O’ Lakes’ streak is in danger

Posted Oct 21, 2011 by Bart O'Connell

Updated Oct 21, 2011 at 02:59 PM

The Class 6A-District 6 playoff picture is still kind of messy, but it could all be cleared up as early as next week.

Sunlake’s 21-10 victory against Land O’ Lakes did not clinch a playoff berth for the Seahawks, but it set up a chance to do so next week at River Ridge. If Sunlake beats the Royal Knights, the worst Sunlake can finish in district play is 6-2, and they would have tiebreakers against Land O’ Lakes and Brooksville Nature Coast, the only other teams capable of finishing 6-2 other than current leader Brooksville Hernando, which is playing Spring Hill Springstead tonight.

Of course, much of the talk after the Sunlake win was about how Land O’ Lakes’ streak of 14 consecutive years in the postseason is over. Technically, that’s not true. But to use an old cliche’, the Gators chances of making the playoffs are on life support. Here’s why:

1) They have already lost to the two teams ahead of them, Sunlake and Brooksville Hernando, in the standings. That means they would lose a head-to-head tiebreaker against either team.
2) They must finish with more district wins than Hernando or Sunlake to make the postseason, and that means winning out AND having Sunlake lose to 0-8 Brooksville Central as well as River Ridge, which seems very unlikely; OR Hernando losing out in games against Springstead, Nature Coast Tech and Mitchell. That also seems extremely unlikely.
3) There is no scenario where Land O’ Lakes would be able to get into a “three-way” tiebreaker for the runner-up spot. River Ridge already has two district losses, so even if the Knights beat Sunlake and lose to Land O’ Lakes, and Nature Coast beat Hernando, Sunlake would take the runner-up spot.

The “wild-card” team in this equation is River Ridge, which is suddenly in a much better position than Land O’ Lakes to make the playoffs, even though they have the same 3-2 district record.

The reason for that is simple: they still get to play Sunlake and Land O’ Lakes. If they win both games, and Hernando, Mitchell or Springstead beats Nature Coast, River Ridge claims the runner-up spot.

So while Sunlake’s players may have thought Thursday night’s game against the Gators was the biggest in school history, next week’s game at River Ridge is even bigger. A Royal Knights win would create total chaos in the standings.

Below are the updated standings. The scenarios will change slightly after Friday’s games in Hernando County…

District Standings Rec Overall
Brooksville Hernando 4-0 5-2
Sunlake 4-1 6-1
River Ridge 3-2 5-2
Land O’ Lakes 3-2 4-3
Brooksville Nature Coast Tech 2-2 3-4
Mitchell 1-3 4-3
Springstead 1-3 2-4
Brooksville Central 0-5 0-8

Tonight’s games

Brooksville Hernando at Spring Hill Springstead
Mitchell at Brooksville Nature Coast Tech

Playoff Scenarios:

Brooksville Hernando can clinch the district title with:
1) Wins in any two of their final three district games.

Sunlake can clinch a playoff berth with:
1) Win against River Ridge on 10/28

The rest of the playoff scenarios for other contending teams will be settled after Friday’s games.