Betting On Thomas?

Posted Oct 5, 2006 by Aaron Knox

Updated Oct 5, 2006 at 09:38 PM

I’m not sure how much Florida or LSU coaches expect unsuspended Gators defensive tackle Marcus Thomas to affect Saturday’s game – especially given that he hasn’t had a full-contact practice in more than two weeks – but somebody thinks Thomas makes a difference.

Gamblers.

Check out these line moves on the Florida-LSU game from vegasinsider.com. The Gators began Thursday – the day the reduction of Thomas’ suspension was announced – as a one-point underdog or a pick ’em (no favorite) at most Las Vegas sports books and most offshore casinos. By early Thursday afternoon, the Gators were one-to-1.5-point favorites. At Caesar’s, the line moved 2.5 points (LSU by one to Florida by 1.5) between 1:03 p.m. and 1:23 p.m. eastern time. Florida was a two-point favorite by 1:56 p.m. At at least 12 Vegas books and at least six offshore books, the Gators moved from underdog or even money to favorites by 2 p.m. Thursday. Thomas’ availability wasn’t announced until about 6 p.m.

What this means is that almost all the money bet on this game early Thursday went down on the Gators. Curious.

There could be a number of legitimate reasons. First, gamblers may have decided the heavy early-week action on LSU was premature. Second, reports of Thomas’ return to practice began leaking Tuesday, and they lent credibility to the rumors that flew last week that Thomas had been cleared to play against LSU. Third, the prognosis for Florida receiver Percy Harvin improved throughout the week, likely pushing more gamblers to bet on Florida.

Still, that’s a big move in 20 minutes with no major public announcement. Maybe some of these gamblers should become beat writers. Nah, they probably make better money doing what they’re doing.