An updated primer on conference expansion

Posted Jun 14, 2010 by Scott Carter

Updated Jun 14, 2010 at 07:16 PM

This is a charticle—yep, a newspaper term—I wrote for Tuesday’s edition of The Tampa Tribune.

I know most of the regular visitors to this blog are professional Internet surfers and can’t get enough of this stuff, so here goes on just another crazy day in the college football world ...

TAMPA— It’s too bad Woody Hayes and Bo Schembechler are no longer with us. No telling what they might have to say about the Big Ten currently having 12 teams and the Big 12 left with only 10 teams.

The Big Ten, traditionally known as the land of 300-pound offensive linemen and a three-yards-and-cloud-of-dust mentality, the conference with just two national football champions (1997 Michigan and 2002 Ohio State) over the past 40 seasons, is now a trend-setter.

Ever since a Chicago Tribune report surfaced last month that Big Ten Commissioner Jim Delany had sped up the conference’s expansion plans, the college football world has been spinning so fast that our 24/7 news cycle can barely keep up.

So, if you’ve wondered what caused all this commotion and how conference realignment might look once the craziness is over, here is a quick primer:

1. What is driving all this conference expansion talk?

Okay, silly question. We all know $$$ is the answer. More specifically: TV money. Since the Big Ten Network debuted in 2007, the league’s average annual income from TV revenue is $242 million according to ESPN Research, which blows away all other BCS conferences other than the SEC’s $205 million.

2. The biggest move so far?

Nebraska leaving the Big 12 to join the Big Ten. The Cornhuskers have won five national titles since 1970 – including sharing the 1997 title with Michigan – and remain one of college football’s premiere programs despite their recent struggles.

3. Why did the Big Ten want to expand in the first place?

To create two divisions and start holding a conference title game. With the addition of Nebraska – Penn State started playing in the Big Ten in 1993 – the league now has 12 teams. According to NCAA rules, in order to hold a conference championship game the league must have 12 teams.

4. Will the Big 12 survive?

With Nebraska’s defection to the Big Ten and Colorado’s defection to the Pac-10, officials from Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech and the remaining Big 12 schools met Monday in an attempt to save the conference. There is a hearing Tuesday involving the Texas board of regents and a special committee hearing on Wednesday involving Texas’s Higher Education Board.

“When you combine education and football, it gets a lot of attention in Texas,’’ state representative Dan Branch (R-Dallas) told SportsIllustrated.com over the weekend.

5. The biggest prize up for grabs?

Notre Dame, of course. However, school officials insist they have no plans to join a conference. No. 2: Texas. The Longhorns are a force on the field and create mega-bucks off it, a big reason the Pac-10 is chasing after the Longhorns so hard.

6. If the Big 12 remains intact, what does that mean for the Pac-10?

An ESPN report early Monday had Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State ready to bolt for the Pac-10 by Tuesday. By late Monday, that had changed due to reports of a reworked Big 12 TV deal. The Pac-10 could go after one or more Mountain West conference teams if the Big 12 survives.

7. What Mountain West schools are the most attractive?

Boise State, which just left the WAC to join the Mountain West on Friday, is the most appealing due to its recent success. Utah, BYU and TCU are other candidates, though Utah is reportedly headed to Pac-10 should Big 12 schools stay put.

8. Where does the Big East stand in all this?

If the Big 12 survives and the Big Ten is content by adding Nebraska, the Big East is unlikely to change. However, if the Big Ten comes after Syracuse, Rutgers and/or Pittsburgh, survival mode kicks in.

9. What’s the latest on Texas A&M?

The Aggies are reportedly leaning toward joining the SEC, but if the Big 12 stays intact because of more TV money, the Aggies could stay put. That is what Gene Stallings, former Alabama head coach and current member of the Texas Board of Regents, is hoping happens. If Texas A&M does opt to join the SEC, then we can expect at least another move to create divisional balance since that would leave the SEC with 13 schools. Oklahoma has been the most mentioned if that scenario unfolds.

10. Last but certainly not least, what is the most likely scenario for USF?

Right now, USF is safe if the Big East stays intact or gets proactive and looks to add teams. If the Big East is raided by the Big Ten or perhaps even the ACC and four 16-team super conferences evolve, USF could be in trouble. Remember, based on the current BCS model, USF, Cincinnati and Louisville are the last three schools to join. Technically, USF is the last because they were the last to receive an official invitation. The four most appealing non-BCS programs currently on the market are Boise State, TCU, Utah and BYU.

The best-case scenario for USF? For the Big East to remain intact or add schools and remain a BCS program. The worst-case? Four 16-team super conferences evolve (Big Ten, ACC, SEC and Pac-10) and USF gets pushed out of BCS. Dream-scenario? USF somehow lands in ACC or SEC amidst major conference expansion models that haven’t been explored yet. (Remember, I said “dream’’ scenario).

Disclaimer: This could all change as soon as you read this based on the events of past few days.