MORE
Most Recent Entries
- Bryant Blames Plane Ride For Debilitating Knee Pain
- Adams Replacement Finally In Place
- It's Beginning To Look A Lot Like 1976
- Freeman ready for first start
- Marcus Jones fights tonight on Spike TV
- Returner Clifton Smith has memento of vicious hit
- Creamsicle not to everyone's taste
- Bucs change kickers - again
- Morris downplays report of Talib confrontation
- Rodgers tough to pick off, easy to sack
- Experts Say Not Much Hope For Winless Buccaneers
- Smith Among Bucs Inactives
- NFL Has Some Pull Here In UK
- Rain Forces Bucs To Move Wembley Walkthrough Indoors
- Cheerio from London
Monthly Archives
|
Our friends at AccuScore, the best sports forecasting website on the internet, have taken the time to break down Tampa Bay’s upcoming game against Carolina this Monday.
Below is what AccuScore has provided to us and for more information, click here to visit AccuScore
ACCUSCORE PREVIEW: Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers
By Stephen Oh
Over 10,000 simulations the Panthers are winning 70 percent the time with Tampa Bay winning 30 percent. The average score is Carolina 23, Tampa Bay 17. While the baseline simulation favors the Panthers there are plenty of reasons why Tampa Bay can get a huge upset win and take command of the NFC South.
Keys to Upsetting Panthers
AccuScore is only giving the Bucs a 30 percent chance of winning this week, but if they can accomplish these 3 on-field statistical goals they can pull off the upset. First, Jeff Garcia cannot afford to throw a costly interception. The Bucs win 38 percent of simulations when Garcia throws no interceptions. The Bucs also need to pressure Jake Delhomme. If they sack Delhomme at least twice and Garcia throws no interceptions their winning percentage increases to 46 percent. Finally, if they do not allow Carolina’s DeAngelo Williams to have a big game (less than 100 rushing yards) combined with the other two factors, the Panthers have a 55 percent chance of winning.
Can Tampa Bay Defense Repeat Their Week 6 Success?
The Bucs demolished the Panthers in their 27-3 Week 6 victory. However, you cannot expect the Panthers key offensive players to have such poor games at home. Jake Delhomme threw 3 interceptions in Week 6. In 10,000 simulations he had 3+ interceptions in just 6 percent of simulations. DeAngelo Williams ran for just 27 yards. In simulations there is only a 9 percent chance of Williams having 27 yards or less. Jonathan Stewart only had 12 rushing yards. There is an 11 percent chance he has a similar lack of success in Week 14.
Overall, there is just a 0.3% chance of Jake Delhomme, DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart all having such miserable games again this week. Of course, if they do the Bucs win these simulations by an average score of TB 25, CAR 10.
How Much Does Earnest Graham’s Injury Hurt Bucs?
Cadillac Williams has returned and helped the team beat the Saints with a big rushing touchdown last week. While it is good to have Cadillac back the question is does his presence offset the loss of Earnest Graham? In simulations where Graham and Warrick Dunn are handling the bulk of the carries the Bucs win 31 percent of the time, just 1 percentage point better than with Cadillac getting an average of 10 carries per simulation. So while Graham’s injury has a negative impact on the team, it appears Cadillac’s presence largely makes up for the loss.
Playoff Picture After Win/Loss
Currently Carolina, Tampa Bay and Atlanta are all in the Top 6 in NFC Playoff Simulations. Because the Panthers are favored over Tampa Bay this week they actually have the best chance of making the playoffs (83 percent) followed by Tampa Bay (68 percent, 4th in NFC) and Atlanta (67 percent).
If the Bucs can pull of the upset this week they obviously get a huge advantage in the division. Their playoff chances increase from 68 percent to 96 percent which shows just how important this game is to both teams. The Panthers chances drop down to 72 percent if they lose. If the Bucs lose this week their chances of making the playoffs are still a strong 67 percent. They are not expected to win this game so a loss would not be that damaging in terms of making the playoffs. It does hurt their chance of hosting a playoff game because Carolina would get a commanding 66 percent chance of winning the NFC South.
Posted by tatmanfish, tampa on 12/05 at 02:23 AM
hey grownoballs, way to cheer on “your team”. the offense wont have to score when we put up 20+ points on D against delhomo.
Posted by joe, Brandon FL on 12/04 at 08:51 AM
Maybe we should let 22 computers play the game. I’d bet on the pewter and red pcs.
Posted by GloboBall, The Press Box on 12/03 at 04:07 PM
AccuCRAP.
But I don’t see the Bucs at 10 and 3 after next Monday. Just not sure the offense can get the points on the road against a good defensive team.
Sure would be nice though.
Posted by shawn, greenville on 12/03 at 03:31 PM
bucs are going to come into carolina and roll. did anyone even watch the green bay game. you cant keep winning games in the nfl in the last minute. all of their luck has run out. i just might feel bad for any panthers fan who paid for a ticket because the loss they will get and the way its going to happen is going to make for a LONG ride home! bucs 27-10
Posted by Panthers Rule, Beatiful Charlotte, North Carolina on 12/03 at 12:32 PM
Panthers are ready to stomp on the Bucs. I predict Garcia gets knocked cold in the first half.
Posted by charles, Kc, MO on 12/03 at 11:53 AM
The Accuscore is crap. It had the Aints beating us last week. It also had Carolina beating us in week 6. We all know how those games turned out. It should be a great game. I will be there. Go Bucs
Posted by BucFandango, Sarasota on 12/03 at 10:54 AM
When they say ” Act like you’ve been there before”, they are referring to the Buc Nation. They have been there before. It shows…and they’re going there again…this February…Raymond James Stadium. No trash talkin, just pure D romp stompin. Take a lesson Carolina. Take a lesson ESPN. Take a lesson Accuscore. Take a lesson Ira & Fennelly. The Bucs are going all the way Baby. Superbowl!!! Go Bucs!!!
Posted by BucFandango, Sarasota on 12/03 at 10:51 AM
If those moron Panthers think Gruden was talking trash, they are even more naive than I thought. The Bucs don’t talk trash…ever. They may say a thing or two on the field, after they light you up, but they are the most respectful organization in the NFL when it comes to discussions about their opponents. After they beat a team, they still give them credit. Leadertship starts at the top, & the Bucs ingrain class into every player and coach. I don’t know if it all started with Dungy, or when Sapp left LOL, but they don’t talk trash. They let their skills do the talking. Gruden merely stated a fact, after finally tiring of his team always being Dogged by the press, or being over shadowed. We all feel his pain. He’s right.
Posted by Angela, michigan on 12/03 at 08:35 AM
I agree with all of you who are questioning the accuscore crap! The more I thought about it last night, the madder I got. Those numbers make absolutely NO sense to me AT ALL!!
Posted by Eddie, Charlotte, NC on 12/03 at 07:45 AM
Damn I can’t wait until Monday Night here in Charlotte. It’s gonna be a good one! The Buc’s have a great chance to grab this division by the horns! The local radio sports show here is talking crap and making a big deal about Gruden’s Monday comment’s..I would like someone to tell me why we(the Buc’s) are playing in Charlotte on a Monday night instaed of Tampa after winning the division last year”. They had Chris Harris on Tuesday Morning and he was talking crap about Gruden and Brooks(Brooks added to Gruden’s comment’s). I’ll be at that game and I can’t wait. My Brother who is a season ticket holder(Buc’s) will be up here as well!
GO BUC’S AND KICK THAT CAROLINA #####!! OH, BTW..GO GATOR’S!!! FSU SUCK’S! HAHAHAHA
Posted by tatmanfish, tampa on 12/03 at 01:29 AM
how is tampa the underdog? they lead the division. they beat carolina earlier this season. in the bucs/panthers rivalry the waway team usually wins. bucs have a 3-1 division record to the panthers 2-2. this is crap. i think accu score just sims games of madden 09 and adds up the averages. the panther have a better shot at making the playoffs because they are the favorite? how about the bucs despite being the “underdog” have a better chance because they are in first. any other stats like the team leading after the 4th quater win 100% of the time.
Posted by DanDee, tampa on 12/02 at 11:35 PM
Sounds like a Steve DUImig fan to me
Posted by BigBucFan, Sarasota on 12/02 at 06:56 PM
Sounds like the thought for the day is GR8. Computers rely on input. Facts are, the Bucs totally trounced Carolina at the last meeting. Carolina was owned for 60 minutes. They were never in the game. They never stood a chance. My question for Accuscore Moron Computer is: What makes you think this time will be any different? Sure, you can just say Carolina had a bad game. Hogwash. Caolina is a Fraud. They are not even a good team, much less a great team. Jake Delhomme was Scared when he played us. You could see it. Carolina’s 15 minutes of fame is up this week and that computer needs an update or a new operator. Can’t we find a better story than this garbage. Why not just use a Ouija Board. Bucs 35 - Carolina 6. This could get ugly.
Posted by jordan, MS on 12/02 at 05:33 PM
GR8 GR8 GR8 I think the Bucs can win this one. I don’t care what a computer says will happen. I do not however think the game will be a dismantling of the Panthers like it was the first time. We’re gonna bring it to them, no doubt. Our secondary is doing great and our defensive line is turning it up. We can’t play like we did in the fourth quarter on offense like we did against the Saints. It’s gonna be by 3 either way. Pray we take them cocky cats down!
Posted by Angela, michigan on 12/02 at 04:30 PM
I don’t think the 3 things are that big of a deal: 1) Jeff Garcia cannot afford to throw a costly interception. There’s a VERY good chance that won’t happen. Garcia protects the ball (I believe he’s only thrown 3 INTS all year.) 2. Pressure Jake Delhomme. Our defense has been amazing and we’ve caused a ton of turnovers and QB’s have been throwing a lot of INTS against TB. 3. Keep DeAngelo from having a big game. We’ve held a lot of GREAT players to record low rushing yards. SO WHAT’S THE BIG DEAL? I don’t want to jinx the Bucs but I think we can do this!!!!!
Posted by oar, on 12/02 at 03:57 PM
I think one of those computer “guesses” said, that the ‘72 Dolphins would beat the ‘75-76 Steelers, so I’m not holding my breath(and I was a displaced Dolphin fan before the Bucs came into existence).
I hope the Bucs have a huge break out game.
Posted by Michael Harris, Oldsmar, FL on 12/02 at 03:36 PM
Sounds about right to me. Carolina has a GR8 defensive front, a GR8 offense and GR8 Special Teams and they’re at home. The Bucs have GR8 Linebacker core, a GR8 secondary, a GR8 Special Teams, a so-so QB and a suspect running game. And no deep threat and scarcely any Red Zone touchdowns. I say Panthers by 10.
Advertisement
Send Us Your Comments |
Terms & Conditions |
* Comments Must Include Full Name And Location
Posted by Casey Cansler, on 12/05 at 11:20 AM
This is CRAP!! Ill start off by reminding this stupid computer that back when Tampa played Carolina in a previous week Tampa killed them 27-3!! I really love how Gruden says “Give my players some credit” because the Bucs never get any love. Its only the ##### teams or the Giants and Titans. First off the Titans are overrated and Giants will lose soon! Trust me! Its whatever Ill be surprised if Bucs dont win 27-24 or something close like that. This computer thing pisses me off! Forget the Panthers! Lets almost lose to Oakland and Detroit both at home I believe. Whatever