Our friends at AccuScore, the best sports forecaster on the internet, took time to preview this Sunday’s game between New Orleans and Detroit exclusively for our TBO viewers.

For information, visit their website AccuScore

ACCUSCORE PREVIEW

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
By Stephen Oh

Tampa Bay Defense Needs to Contain Brees
It is no secret that the Saints try to beat teams by passing for 300 yards and at least 2 touchdowns. The Saints are 5-1 this year in games where Drew Brees posted these numbers. In 10,000 AccuScore game simulations Drew Brees is averaging just under these numbers with 293 yards and 1.9 TDs. There is a 35 percent chance that Brees has 300+ yards and 2+ TD passes and if he does this the Saints actually pull ahead winning 51.1 percent of these 3,500 simulations.

Drew Brees has had three games where he threw multiple interceptions. The Saints are 0-3 in these games. When the Bucs defense intercepts Brees at least once they increase their chances of winning from 53 percent to 60 percent. Intercept Brees more than once and the Bucs win a commanding 71 percent of simulations.

Tampa Bay Should Hope Reggie Bush is Back
Reggie Bush is an excellent punt returner, but his production as a running back is still sub-par. He may lead running backs in receptions per game but the Saints offense is more dynamic when Drew Brees is forced to look for his big play receivers downfield and not just throw the short pass to Bush. Third string RB Pierre Thomas has just 119 career rushes and 36 career receptions, but he is far more productive per touch than Reggie Bush or Deuce McAllister.

In simulations Thomas is averaging 4.1 yards per carry against the stout Tampa Bay defense which is far better than McAllister’s 3.5 and Bush’s 2.7. The Saints have racked up 81 points their past 2 weeks with Thomas getting over 15 carries per game. His 5.7 ypc in the past 2 games have lifted the Saints to two straight double digit wins.

Even though Reggie Bush gets the headlines the fact is the Bucs should hope he is healthy enough to carry the ball 8 to 10 times because when Bush splits carries with Thomas the Bucs increase their winning percentage from 53 percent to 58 percent. Ideally for Tampa Bay, Reggie Bush is healthy enough to play 40 percent of the game at running back, but the Saints do not want to use him in the return game his first week back.

Jeff Garcia Should Have an Excellent Game
Drew Brees will get much more attention from the national media, but Jeff Garcia is putting up impressive numbers as well. He is completing 66 percent of his passes on his way to 250 yards and 1.9 TD passes (same as Brees) per simulation. There is a high 45 percent chance that Garcia has at least 1 TD pass without throwing an interceptions. In these simulations the Bucs win 64 percent of the time by an average score of Tampa Bay 27, New Orleans 22.

Playoff Picture After Win/Loss
Tampa Bay is currently in a secure 4th place in the NFC in terms of making the playoffs. In 10,000 season simulations they make the playoffs 64 percent of the time. New Orleans is last in the NFC South but still alive with a 27 percent chance of making the playoffs. If the Saints pull off the upset their playoff chances nearly double to 51 percent because they would win a game they are not ‘supposed’ to win on the road over a division opponent. More importantly, they would have a season sweep over Tampa Bay which would give the Saints a 27 percent chance of winning the NFC South.

Tampa Bay would have just a 23 percent chance of winning the division which is lower than the Saints’ 27 percent. However, Tampa Bay would still have a 55 percent chance overall of making the playoffs which is higher than the Saints’ overall playoff chances.

However, if Tampa Bay wins the game they become a virtual lock for the playoffs making it 87 percent of the time. Of course these percentages change depending on what Carolina and Atlanta do this weekend, but obviously, this is a big weekend for the NFC South.