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A Look At The College Football Landscape: |
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They’ll play the 17th SEC Championship Game Saturday in Atlanta’s Georgia Dome.
Alabama and Florida are getting together in the game for the sixth time (the Gators hold a 3-2 edge head-to-head), and judging by a quick look around the SEC, these two will probably be meeting yet again indoors soon.
With Auburn’s dismissal Wednesday of Tommy Tuberville, four of the opponents Alabama has burned through on the way to a 12-0 record have shown their head coaches the door in the past two months - Clemson’s Tommy Bowden, Phillip Fulmer of Tennessee and Mississippi State’s Sylvester Croom preceding Tuberville.
Each of those programs has significant, obvious flaws that run deeper than a simple loss to the Crimson Tide, but it’s hard not to notice what some have called the ‘Saban Effect’: put simply, Nick Saban is helping put many of his peers (including three from the SEC) out of work.
This is no great surprise, given Saban’s success at Michigan State and LSU. But it’s remarkable how quickly he has completely transformed Alabama, which was still reeling from NCAA probation and four years of mismanagement at the hands of Mike Shula when Saban got to Tuscaloosa just 23 months ago.
Urban Meyer’s four-year track record at Florida, of course, is no less astounding: a national title, an SEC championship, a Heisman Trophy winner in Tim Tebow and status as a double-digit favorite against the No. 1 team in the country in Saturday’s title game.
So who’s to keep these two coaching juggernauts from routinely meeting in downtown Atlanta in early December, much like two of their predecessors, Gene Stallings and Steve Spurrier?
No one. A fat check from Notre Dame to Meyer is probably the surest bet, but the Irish have apparently committed to another year of Charlie Weis’ bungling in 2009, and Meyer could grow tired of waiting for his acknowledged “dream job” to become open again.
Tennessee and LSU are the two teams that play the Tide and the Gators every year, and neither looks like a serious threat to challenge for a division title anytime soon. The Volunteers, in fact, are likely to deal with repercussions of new coach Lane Kiffin’s vow on the day he was announced to beat UF in Gainesville next September.
Say this much for Kiffin: he doesn’t appear to be lacking in confidence. Unfortunately for him and Tennessee, that doesn’t convert to on-field talent. Trying to outwork Meyer and Saban in that area isn’t promising, either.
LSU (like Auburn) had beaten Alabama six straight years before losing in overtime last month in Baton Rouge. But the Tigers have staggered to the finish line this season, going 7-5 (just 3-5 in the conference), and fans are openly questioning whether Les Miles, after four seasons on the job, is really the guy to keep LSU on a par with Saban’s Alabama.
Ah, the irony.
Meanwhile, Auburn is in thorough disarray, and faced with the daunting task of convincing an established (or even upwardly mobile) coach that he can compete in the same state as Saban. That pressure, no doubt, contributed to the downfall of Tuberville, though there were clearly plenty of problems within the Auburn program that had little or nothing to do with Tuscaloosa.
That leaves Georgia among the SEC’s heavy hitters to stand up to Bama and Florida. Trouble is, this season the Dawgs laid down to both, and in embarrassing fashion. For a team most rated No. 1 to start the year, UGA looked feeble several times this season (such as when it gave up 45 points to… Georgia Tech), and franchise players Matthew Stafford and Knowshon Moreno are almost certainly leaving campus for the NFL.
By elimination, then, perhaps the greatest threat to Alabama’s supremacy in the SEC West will come from Ole Miss or Arkansas. Houston Nutt and the Rebels came closer than anyone to date to knocking off the Tide (to go along with victories at Florida and LSU), and Nutt has certainly proven his skills at recruiting. Arkansas and Bobby Petrino were clearly pretty desperate for one another a year ago, and it’ll be interesting to see if Petrino’s infamous wanderlust will get the better of him before he can turn the Hogs around.
As for the Gators, the only remaining potential threat in the East comes from their former coach (now at South Carolina), whom they only managed to beat by 50 points in the Swamp last month. It’s not hard to imagine the Gamecocks (and perhaps other league schools) finding themselves next year at this time in the same position as the three who have already decided to start over with new leadership.
Alabama and Florida, meanwhile, should plan on extending their own personal holiday tradition for the foreseeable future. A peachy life, indeed.
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