Luke Easterling's Draft Analysis:

Forum: Talk Bucs | Special Report: NFL Draft

FINAL MOCK DRAFT

Posted Apr 28, 2011 by Luke Easterling

Updated Apr 28, 2011 at 05:02 PM

Amid all the chaos around the NFL related to the labor situation, tonight’s draft will hopefully help everyone focus on football for once this off-season.  Without any further ado, here is my final first-round projection.  As always, I don’t try to predict trades.

1. Carolina Panthers - Cam Newton, QB, Auburn -

2. Denver Broncos - Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama

3. Buffalo Bills - Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M

4. Cincinnati Bengals - A.J. Green, WR, Georgia

5. Arizona Cardinals - Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU

6. Cleveland Browns - Julio Jones, WR, Alabama

7. San Francisco 49ers - Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri

8. Tennessee Titans - Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn

9. Dallas Cowboys - J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin

10. Washington Redskins - Jake Locker, QB, Washington

11. Houston Texans - Robert Quinn, DE/OLB, North Carolina

12. Minnesota Vikings - Tyron Smith, OT, USC

13. Detroit Lions - Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska

14. St. Louis Rams - Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois

15. Miami Dolphins - Mike Pouncey, G/C, Florida

16. Jacksonville Jaguars - Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue

17. New England Patriots (from OAK) - Cameron Jordan, DE, California

18. San Diego Chargers - Muhammed Wilkerson, DE, Temple

19. New York Giants - Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri

21. Kansas City Chiefs - Anthony Costanzo, OT, Boston College

22. Indianapolis Colts - Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin

23. Philadelphia Eagles - Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado

24. New Orleans Saints - Da’Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson

25. Seattle Seahawks - Nate Solder, OT, Colorado

26. Baltimore Ravens - Randall Cobb, WR, Kentucky

27. Atlanta Falcons - Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa

28. New England Patriots - Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama

29. Chicago Bears - Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State

30. New York Jets - Phil Taylor, NT, Baylor

31. Pittsburgh Steelers - Danny Watkins, G, Baylor

32. Green Bay Packers - Brooks Reed, OLB, Arizona

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Bucs’ Draft Needs/Options

Posted Apr 19, 2011 by Luke Easterling

Updated Apr 19, 2011 at 09:32 PM

Every war room across the NFL on draft day will be dealing with that ever-delicate balance: drafting for value versus drafting for need.  The Bucs definitely have some glaring needs, but is it better to reach for need rather than simply drafting the best overall talent on the board?  Let’s take a look at what the Bucs need, and where those needs fit best in relation to the players who are likely to be available at each of their first three picks. 

For each position, I’ll give the players most likely to be available at the Bucs’ pick in each of the first three rounds.

DEFENSIVE END

This is the top need for the Bucs, which is convenient considering that the best talent available at pick #20 will most likely be at the DE spot.  The Bucs need a player who can have an immediate impact and play every down, meaning they’ll need a well-rounded talent who can play the run as well as have an impact rushing the passer.

Options by round

1st: Ryan Kerrigan (Purdue), Da’Quan Bowers (Clemson), Adrian Clayborn (Iowa), Cameron Jordan (California)

2nd: Allen Bailey (Miami), Jabaal Sheard (Pittsburgh)

3rd:  Sam Acho (Texas), Jeremy Beal (Oklahoma)

OUTSIDE LINEBACKER

If Barrett Ruud doesn’t return, than you can put middle linebacker right up there, too.  At this point, though, OLB is definitely the more pressing need.  There’s only one player at this position worth taking in the first round (UCLA’s Akeem Ayers), so this need is more likely to be addressed with a later pick.

1st: Akeem Ayers (UCLA)

2nd: Bruce Carter (North Carolina), Dontay Moch (Nevada)

3rd: Chris Carter (Fresno State), Colin McCarthy (Miami)

OFFENSIVE LINE

The Bucs will definitely be looking to add some depth along the offensive line, and every spot will get a long look.  Donald Lee is entrenched as the starter at left tackle, but Davin Joseph is likely to head elsewhere in free agency and Jeff Faine is entering the twilight of his career.  James Lee turned in a solid performance at RT down the stretch, but there’s improvement to be made there and at left guard, as well.  The Bucs don’t necessarily need an immediate starter, so look for them to address this need later in the draft.

1st: Gabe Carimi (T, Wisconsin), Nate Solder (T, Colorado), Derek Sherrod (T, Mississippi State)

2nd: Jah Reid (T, UCF), Ben Ijalana (T, Villanova)

3rd: James Carpenter (T/G, Alabama), Marcus Gilbert (T, Florida)

CORNERBACK

This need will move quickly up the list if Aqib Talib doesn’t return.  As it stands, the Bucs could use another young corner to mold into a starter to eventually replace Ronde Barber.  Last year’s third-round pick, Myron Lewis, is developing, but it may be at too slow a pace for the Bucs to wait.  Colorado’s Jimmy Smith is nearly an exact replica of Talib, in both good and bad ways, so don’t look for them to take a corner in Round 1.

1st: Jimmy Smith (Colorado)

2nd: Ras-I Dowling (Virginia), Curtis Brown (Texas), Brandon Burton (Utah), DeMarcus Van ##### (Miami)

3rd: Kendric Burney (North Carolina), Chimdi Chekwa (Ohio State), Cortez Allen (The Citadel)

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MOCK DRAFT 1.0

Posted Apr 13, 2011 by Luke Easterling

Updated Apr 13, 2011 at 07:43 PM

Mock drafts have been swirling since the end of last season, but I always wait a little while to jump into it.  I like to let things settle a little bit first, letting the Combine and most of the Pro Days and private workouts happen before putting out my initial first-round projection.

That time has indeed arrived, so here is the first version of how I think the first round will shake out.  At this point, I’m not including projected trades, so this will be who I think will be selected if every team stays put at their pick.

Here we go.

(NOTE: This mock was originally written on April 1.  I still feel the same about most of these picks, so I’m posting it.  Look for my final mock on Wednesday, April 27, the night before the Draft.)

1. Carolina Panthers - Cam Newton, QB, Auburn - We’re going to hear a million stories about this pick between now and Draft Day.  At this point, everything I’m hearing points to Newton being the pick.  It seems a little early for Carolina GM Marty Hurney to be giving up on last year’s 2nd round pick, Jimmy Clausen, but Newton’s potential might just be too much for the Panthers to pass up.

2. Denver Broncos - Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama - The Broncos are transitioning to a 4-3 scheme, and the most immediate need will be a dominant presence in the interior of the defensive line.  Thankfully for Denver, they should have an opportunity to land the most complete player in this draft at that position in Dareus.

3. Buffalo Bills - Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M - Bringing in an edge rusher isn’t the most pressing need for Buffalo, but if Newton is off the board, look for them to go this route.  Miller is one of the top overall talents in the draft, and taking him would be a much better decision than reaching for an offensive tackle or taking Blaine Gabbert.  If the Bills choose to stick with the “Best Player Available” theory, look for Patrick Peterson to get serious consideration here, as well.

4. Cincinnati Bengals - A.J. Green, WR, Georgia - Carson Palmer’s status remains uncertain, but if the Bengals hold out any hope of bringing him back next season, they have to restock his arsenal of weapons.  Green is one of the most complete receivers to enter the draft in recent memory, and would make an immediate impact.

5. Arizona Cardinals - Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri - The Cardinals are in desperate need of a franchise QB, and they have to take the risk of hoping Gabbert can be the guy.  If Von Miller falls to this pick, it may make the decision a little harder, but in this scenario Gabbert would be the no-brainer.

6. Cleveland Browns - Robert Quinn, OLB, North Carolina - GM Mike Holmgren would hate to see A.J. Green off the board at this point, but there are definitely other solid options in this scenario.  I see the Browns taking value over need with this pick, taking a dominant edge rusher in Quinn over the risky pick, Da’Quan Bowers.

7. San Francisco 49ers - Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU - This pick shouldn’t take long to get in if the draft falls this way.  Peterson is arguably the best overall player in this draft, and would give the ‘Niners an electrifying playmaker at a premium position.

8. Tennessee Titans - Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn - Fairley’s former position coach, Tracey Rocker (now an assistant for the Titans), will be screaming for this pick to be made.  There’s no value at this point at QB, there they have the biggest need, so they take last year’s most dominant defensive player in college football.

9. Dallas Cowboys - J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin - As always, the Cowboys will most likely try to trade down from this pick and take the best available offensive tackle or defensive end.  If they stay put, however, Watt represents the best value at a huge need area, as opposed to reaching for a tackle here.

10. Washington Redskins - Aldon Smith, OLB, Missouri - Julio Jones is the popular pick here, but I’ve got a feeling that Washington is going to go in different direction with this pick.  WR is definitely a bigger area of need, but pairing Smith with Brian Orakpo would give the ‘Skins a formidable duo of edge rushers.

11.  Houston Texans - Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska - The Texans would love to see a top talent like Amukamara fall to them here.  Cornerback is a top priority for Houston, and in this scenario they would snag a Top-10 talent.

12. Minnesota Vikings - Da’Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson - QB is a way bigger need for the Vikes, but I think this is too early to start talking about Jake Locker or Christian Ponder.  It’s hard to be sure how fall Bowers will fall due to serious health concerns, but at this pick it would be hard for Minnesota to resist a top-5 talent.

13. Detroit Lions - Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College - The Lions would hate to see Amukamara gone at this point, but providing stronger protection for Matthew Stafford is also a priority.  Castonzo is thought of in some circles to be the most pro-ready of any of the tackle prospects.

14. St. Louis Rams - Julio Jones, WR, Alabama - This is the dream scenario for the Rams.  WR is definitely their biggest need, and the drop-off after Jones is steep.  This pick would give Sam Bradford a big target with a stellar combination of size and athleticism.

15. Miami Dolphins - Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama - Miami is the only team with a true need for a feature back, and they’re almost certain to have the opportunity to grab the best back in this year’s class.  Ingram has the skill set required of an every-down NFL back and has drawn comparisons to Emmitt Smith.

16. Jacksonville Jaguars - Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue - The Jags have two young starters entrenched along the interior of the defensive line in Tyson Alualu and Terrance Knighton, but they still need a dynamic pass rusher of the future.  Kerrigan is well-balanced against both the run and pass, and rarely takes a play off.  He also represents the best value here versus other need areas for the Jags.

17.  New England Patriots (from OAK) - Mike Pouncey, G/C, Florida - The Pats will again have the luxury of letting the draft come to them.  With plenty of picks in the early rounds and not many huge needs, they will simply take the best player available.  The Pats love taking Gators, and Pouncey’s versatility will provide needed depth along the interior of the offensive line.

18. San Diego Chargers - Cameron Jordan, DE, California -  The Bolts would love for Jordan to make it past the Pats.  They have a huge need for a 5-technique defensive end, and Jordan’s stellar performance at the Senior Bowl vaulted him into the mid-first-round conversation.

19. New York Giants - Tyron Smith, OT, USC - Pure value with this pick.  While their true need is along the interior of the offensive line, there’s really no first-round value at this point with Pouncey already off the board.  In this scenario, the G-Men might not be able to pass up Smith, who is arguably the best tackle in the draft.

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA - The Bucs need help throughout the entire defensive unit, and Ayers’ versatility makes him a perfect fit.  Ayers displays great athleticism in coverage, excellent instincts in pursuit and play recognition, and was successful as a pass rusher, even from a true defensive end alignment at UCLA.

21. Kansas City Chiefs - Nate Solder, OT, Colorado - It’s possible that K.C. could go for a receiver here, but the value is better at other positions at this point.  Solder could plug in immediately at the right tackle spot and would be a solid addition to the offensive line.

22. Indianapolis Colts - Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin - The Colts need to invest in keeping Peyton Manning on his feet, and Carimi’s ability to play either tackle spot make him a great pick who could make an impact right away.

23. Philadelphia Eagles - Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado - This pick is a perfect fit, balancing value with a pressing need.  Character concerns have tempered Smith’s draft stock, but his physical ability is undeniable.

24. New Orleans Saints - Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa - This is another pick that just makes sense.  The Saints have a glaring need at defensive end, and Clayborn is likely to come off the board around this pick.

25. Seattle Seahawks - Jake Locker, QB, Washington - The Charlie Whitehurst experiment looks to be a failure already, leaving the Seahawks in need of a franchise QB.  The Seahawks have had the closest vantage point for watching Locker, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them pull the trigger here.

26. Baltimore Ravens - Torrey Smith, WR, Maryland - Joe Flacco needs a target who can stretch the field and take some coverage pressure off of Anquan Boldin.  Smith is a local favorite whose great size/speed combination would be the perfect fit for the Ravens.

27. Atlanta Falcons - Justin Houston, DE, Georgia - The Falcons have a few different options here, but the best value is still at defensive end at this point.  Houston is a very similar player to John Abraham, and would provide an immediate impact as a situational pass rusher until he’s fully prepared to play on every down.

28. New England Patriots - Muhammed Wilkerson, DE, Temple - Whomever the Pats take at #17 will obviously have a big impact on what direction they go with this pick.  In this scenario, the Pats would be looking to add either an outside linebacker or a 5-technique defensive end such as Wilkerson, who played defensive tackle at Temple but would transition into the 3-4 end position.

29. Chicago Bears - Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois - With the departure of Tommie Harris, the Bears have a huge need for a 3-technique defensive tackle.  This would be a favorable scenario for Chicago, in which a top-20 talent like Liuget falls to them at this pick.

30. New York Jets - Brooks Reed, OLB, Arizona - This pick would be a great fit.  The Jets have a glaring hole at outside linebacker, and Reed’s stock has done nothing but go up since the end of last season.  He would provide instant help as a pass-rushing presence off the edge.

31. Pittsburgh Steelers -Brandon Harris, CB, Miami (FL) - The Steelers need for get faster in the defensive backfield, and while Texas’ Aaron Williams might be a more complete corner, Harris has him beat in the speed department and could get the nod if they choose to go in that direction.

32. Green Bay Packers - Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State - There’s obviously not a lot of need areas for the Super Bowl champs, but adding a
young building block at defensive end would definitely be a wise way to go with this pick.  Heyward underachieved at Ohio State, but his potential would be worth pulling the trigger here.

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