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Sabato: Trends Breaking Obama’s Way

Posted Oct 9, 2008 by Billy House

Updated Oct 9, 2008 at 11:48 AM

For the first time this presidential election, political analyst Larry Sabato projects that Democrat Barack Obama now has enough states solidly in his column, likely to be in his column, or leaning his way, to provide more more-than-enough electoral votes for victory.

And Sabato says that doesn’t include three states he previously has listed as leaning to Republican John McCain that are now “pure toss-ups”: Florida (27 electoral votes), Missouri (11), and North Carolina (15).

“The loss of Florida would be absolutely fatal to McCain’s chances. Practically speaking, McCain’s defeat in any of the three states would probably guarantee the Republican’s loss,” writes Sabato.

Here’s what Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, writes:

“Based on current polling and other state trends, including information gathered during our personal visits to some toss-up states, we reckon that Obama now has 190 solid, 49 likely, and 39 Leaning electoral votes, for a total of 278, or 8 more than needed for election. McCain now has 143 solid, 20 likely, and 11 leaning electoral votes,” ” writes Sabato in his latest projections, released this morning.

“Obama now has the edge in Colorado (9 electoral votes), Michigan (17), Pennsylvania (21), New Hampshire (4), Nevada (5). In addition, he says Iowa has firmed up to be solidly Obama’s, and New Mexico is now likely Obama’s rather than just leaning.”

And all of that, he writes, doesn’t include the new toss-ups: Florida, Missouri, and North Carolina.

“Nothing is necessarily permanent in a fluid presidential campaign,” cautions Sabato.

“We’ll watch all four Obama ‘leaning’ states carefully, and especially New Hampshire, which is quirky and has rescued McCain twice (in both the 2000 and 2008 presidential primaries), he writes. “In addition, we’ll keep a close eye on Pennsylvania where Democratic ground reports continue to suggest there is racial resistance to Obama in blue collar areas and where McCain operatives are determined to pull an upset.”