RSS Feed of the blog

Contributors:

Reporter William March has covered state and national politics since 1994. Email

Reporter Christian M. Wade has covered the City of Tampa since 2008. Email

Reporter Mike Salinero has covered Hillsborough County government for The Tampa Tribune since 2007. Email

Reporter Lindsay Peterson has been a general assignment reporter at the Tampa Tribune since 2005, focusing on higher education since 2009. Email

Tribune Politics Coverage

Florida Political Blogs:

• State Of Sunshine
• Pushing Rope
• Interstate4Jamming
• News Service of Florida
• FLA Politics
• Sayfie Review/

More Resources:

• TBO.com Home Page
• TBO.com Politics
• TBO.com News Updates
• Live Traffic Updates
• TBO.com Communities

Most Recent Entries

• Sharpe to make announcement, may be out of House race
• Largo Military Museum Gets New Name, Mission
• Planned Parenthood: Polls show Catholics, voters favor contraception coverage
• Weatherford denies any attempt to undermine West
• Michelle Obama to tour Florida for healthy eating
• Pentagon Co-Spokesman Changed Trim After Boss’ Haircuts
• Brig. Gen. Becomes Highest-Ranking Death in Afghanistan
• Special Operations Command To Go Para-Commando Over University of Tampa
• Air Force To Cut Nearly 300 Planes, But None From MacDill
• POTUS Veterans Job Act: Billions To Hire Vets As Law Enforcement, First Reponders, Park Workers
• Will Israel Really Strike Iran? SECDEF Won’t Comment On Ignatius Assertion
• College Scholarship Available To a Lucky Family At MacDIll
• CENTCOM Boss Meets with New Pakistan Ambassador
• White House comes to Tampa for Hispanic outreach
• Hasner announces campaign switch

More

• Breaking News
• Command Post Tampa
• Fact Finders - Databay Blog
• Guestbook: Remembering The Fallen Soldiers
• Fresh Squeezed Politics
• Political Safari

Monthly Archives

• Breaking News
• Command Post Tampa
• Fact Finders - Databay Blog
• Guestbook: Remembering The Fallen Soldiers
• Fresh Squeezed Politics
• Political Safari

Mason-Dixon: Obama Up By 2 Points In Florida

Posted Oct 7, 2008 by William March

Updated Oct 7, 2008 at 11:09 AM

A new poll by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for The Tampa Tribune and other Florida news agencies shows Barack Obama leading John McCain in Florida by 2 points—less than the margin of error and therefore statistically a tie.

The numbers: Obama, 48 percent; McCain, 46 percent; others, 1 percent; undecided, 6 percent.

The margin of error is 4 percentage points.

This outcome is consistent with other polls published in the past week or so in that it shows Obama leading, but it gives Obama a narrower margin than most others. Other polls have shown him leading by 3 to 6 percentage points. A Florida Chamber of Commerce poll last week was the exception, showing McCain narrowly ahead.

The RealClearPolitics Web site, which averages the results of all political polls by state, showed Obama with an average lead of 3.1 points in recent Florida polls before the Mason-Dixon poll came out.

Pollster Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon said his poll may reflect a slightly smaller Obama lead because it includes results from calls made as late as Monday night, and news events in the past few days could have benefitted McCain.

During the day Monday, for example, Sarah Palin made highly publicized appearances in Clearwater and Estero as part of a two-day tour continuing today; and in the past few days, the McCain campaign has increased it advertising buy in Florida and ramped up its negative rhetoric attacking Obama.

Interest in the Mason-Dixon poll is heightened because some political insiders consider Mason-Dixon the most reliable of published political polls in Florida and because it generally is thought that McCain must win Florida to win the election. The close poll outcome therefore suggests the two will be battling intensely in Florida until Nov. 4.