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Poll: Marriage Amendment Falling Short

Posted Oct 23, 2008 by Catherine Dolinski

Updated Oct 23, 2008 at 11:40 AM

A majority of Floridians support the so-called Marriage Protection Amendment appearing on the fall presidential election ballot – but not enough to hit the 60-percent threshold required to change the Florida Constitution, a new poll shows today.

Fifty-six percent of likely voters said they would approve Amendment 2, which would define marriage as a union between one man and one woman only, according to survey results released this morning by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research. Thirty-seven percent said they would vote no, and 7 percent were undecided.

Those results closely resemble the 55 percent to 34 percent split that Mason-Dixon pollsters recorded two weeks ago.

The margin of error for today’s poll is no more than 4 percentage points, plus or minus.

The pollsters surveyed 625 registered voters by telephone Monday through Tuesday. All respondents said they were likely to vote in the general election Nov. 4.

Support was lower for Amendments 4 and 6, but pollster Brad Coker said they still could pass given the high number of undecided voters. Forty-three percent said they would vote for Amendment 4, a tax exemption for dedicating land for conservation purposes. Twenty-two percent said they oppose it, and the rest were unsure.

Amendment 6 would require property appraisers to assess the value of waterfront property used for commercial fishing purposes based on the current use, not the value if redeveloped. Forty-five percent support the measure; 19 percent oppose it; and the rest are undecided. That’s a jump in support from two weeks ago, when Mason-Dixon found that 33 percent said they would vote yes.

In his report, Coker says Amendment 8 is “going down.” That proposal, allowing a local-option sales tax to support community colleges, has more opposition – 47 percent—than support, 38 percent.