Reporter William March has covered state and national politics since 1994. Email
Reporter Christian M. Wade has covered the City of Tampa since 2008. Email
Reporter Mike Salinero has covered Hillsborough County government for The Tampa Tribune since 2007. Email
Reporter Lindsay Peterson has been a general assignment reporter at the Tampa Tribune since 2005, focusing on higher education since 2009. Email
|
Posted Oct 14, 2008 by William March
Updated Oct 14, 2008 at 09:27 AM
The RealClearPolitics Web site, which is fast becoming an indispensable reference for political junkies, has moved Florida from the “tossup” to the “leaning Obama” category, with yesterday’s Rasmussen poll showing Obama up five points. A five-point Obama lead now is the RCP average of Florida polls.
For a couple of weeks, RCP left Florida in the tossup category in spite of polls showing Obama with a narrow lead—probably because of the state’s recent history of leaning Republican and possibly also because of the state GOP’s vaunted voter turnout machine. With their turnout efforts, the state Republicans often manage to run slightly ahead of the polls on Election Day.
For what it’s worth, fivethirtyeight.com, which takes a more technical and less historical approach to evaluating polls, already had listed Florida as leaning Obama. Karl Rove, as of Friday, still had Florida listed as a tossup.
RCP’s move of Florida and Colorado from tossup to Obama leaners means the site now gives Obama 313 projected Electoral College votes—238 “solid” and 75 “leaning”—compared with McCain’s 158, or 140 solid and 18 leaning. It takes 270 electoral votes to win.
ADVERTISEMENT
Advertisement
TBO.com - Tampa Bay Online ©2010 Media General Communications Holdings, LLC. A Media General company. Member Agreement | Privacy Statement | Work With Us