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- Skidmore proposes statewide protections for transgender people as Tampa enacts rule locally
- Get your Bill McCollum autograph today! GOP reigns supreme on eBay (updated)
- Unemployment in Florida reaches 11.2 percent; debate over federal aid continues
- Rubio within 10 points of Crist? So says Daily Kos poll
- Sink’s CFO office chief to move to campaign
- AG race could be a contest of dog lovers
- Meek tries to pin down Crist on unemployment compensation aid
- Rubio backer collects $$ from Crist buddies
- GOP “emergency meeting” tomorrow; Okaloosa party votes against Greer
- Dockery snags endorsement from former GOP chairman Tom Slade
- Erin Isaac’s resignation letter
- Aronberg gets painters’ union endorsement
- AARP: Poll shows members support health care reform
- New “fair and balanced” Tally news service coming?
- Today’s number: 35, average age for high blood pressure in military
The RealClearPolitics Web site, which is fast becoming an indispensable reference for political junkies, has moved Florida from the “tossup” to the “leaning Obama” category, with yesterday’s Rasmussen poll showing Obama up five points. A five-point Obama lead now is the RCP average of Florida polls.
For a couple of weeks, RCP left Florida in the tossup category in spite of polls showing Obama with a narrow lead—probably because of the state’s recent history of leaning Republican and possibly also because of the state GOP’s vaunted voter turnout machine. With their turnout efforts, the state Republicans often manage to run slightly ahead of the polls on Election Day.
For what it’s worth, fivethirtyeight.com, which takes a more technical and less historical approach to evaluating polls, already had listed Florida as leaning Obama. Karl Rove, as of Friday, still had Florida listed as a tossup.
RCP’s move of Florida and Colorado from tossup to Obama leaners means the site now gives Obama 313 projected Electoral College votes—238 “solid” and 75 “leaning”—compared with McCain’s 158, or 140 solid and 18 leaning. It takes 270 electoral votes to win.
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