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WASHINGTON – Is time spent in Florida really a strategic feint by Barack Obama?
As the Illinois senator makes his appearances in Tampa and elsewhere in the state, one prominent national political analyst doubts that Obama will be able to carry the state in November against Republican John McCain, or that he even needs to.
“I think Florida will be competitive, but I’d be surprised if he wins it,” said Charlie Cook, of the non-partisan Cook Political Report newsletter, in an interview today.
The single biggest reason: “White voters over 60.”
“It doesn’t have anything directly to do with McCain,” Cook added. “Right now they (Florida Democrats who voted in Jan. 29 primary) are going with Hillary Clinton over Obama.”
“They have a problem with Obama,” said Cook, of the older, white Floridians.
But while “McCain can’t win without winning Florida,” insisted Cook, “Obama can.”
And Obama could even win the White House without Ohio, said Cook.
Cook rattled off a number of other-state combinations that he says can put Obama over the top without winning Florida this fall – succeeding here or there where Democratic presidential nominees John Kerry and Al Gore only barely failed.
In short, Cook said that if Obama can win Iowa, New Mexico, New Hampshire and Nevada or Colorado, he won’t need Florida or Ohio.
“And I would be very, very surprised to see John McCain win a single state that John Kerry won,” said Cook.
Still, Cook said he expects Obama to spend some time and some resources in Florida.
“A Democrat should not want to win without Florida and Ohio,” added Cook.
“But in 2000, Tim Russert said it’s all about Florida, Florida, Florida,” said Cook. “I don’t think anybody is going to be saying Florida, Florida, Florida this time.”
Still, Cook said he expects Obama to spend some time and some resources in Florida this summer and fall, if for no other reason than to make McCain expend some of his resources.
“To the extent that he forces McCain to spend money in Florida – he’s (Obama’s) accomplished something there,” said Cook.
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