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Who really benefits from Bud Chiles dropping out?

Posted Sep 1, 2010 by Catherine Whittenburg, Tallahassee bureau

Updated Sep 1, 2010 at 11:02 AM

Much has been said and written about NPA gubernatorial candidate Bud Chiles being a potential spoiler for Democrat Alex Sink; Chiles’ expected departure from the race this week has been almost universally judged, therefore, to be a boon for Sink.

But Tom Jensen, of Public Policy Polling, says on his blog that Alex Sink supporters may not be able to count on those votes.

“You can argue it either way,” Jensen wrote, noting that in a recent PPP poll, respondents who said that they intended to vote for Chiles also

-voted for John McCain in 2008, 62-33
-disapprove of President Barack Obama, 69-31 and
-were 47 percent Republican, 30 percent Democratic, and 23 percent independent

“Contrary to conventional wisdom the Chiles voters were Republican and conservative leaning folks quite unhappy with the Democrats. So you might expect his dropping out to actually benefit Rick Scott,” the pollster continues.

The fly in that ointment for Scott, Jensen says, is that 60 percent of Chiles supporters had an unfavorable opinion of the Republican candidate. “Chiles was a landing spot for folks who didn’t like Scott or the Democrats. With him out those folks are going to have to make a lesser of two evils choice- does it bother us more to vote for a guy we dislike or to vote for a Democrat? My guess is it ends up being a wash and having no real effect on the race.”

Read Jensen’s blog here.