Add Your Photos | Ask a question | Live Video Weather Coverage | Hurricane Guide

Watching The Tropics

Posted Jun 25, 2010 by Megan Hatton

Updated Jun 25, 2010 at 09:25 AM

The tropics are heating up!  One area of continued interest is south of Cuba and east of the Yucatan Peninsula.  The National Hurricane Center is forecasting a 70% chance this system could become a depression or tropical storm within the next 48 hours.  An Air Force Recon flight is scheduled to investigate this area later today.  The system doesn’t look too impressive on satellite; there is abundant convection but no clear organization or circulation.  Low shear and warm water temperatures will keep the environment conducive for development.

As for strength and track, the models are in complete disagreement once and IF the system enters the Gulf.  A handful of models take the system northwest towards the Texas coast, while others swing it north to northeast posing a threat to the northern Gulf coast.  What is certain for the bay area will be an influx of tropical moisture.  Rain chances will steadily increase through the weekend and rain may be quite heavy as we head into next week.

Another area of interest is to the east of the northern Leeward Islands.  According to the National Hurricane Center there is a 10% chance or less of this system becoming a depression or tropical storm within the next 48 hours.

The first name on the list for the 2010 season is Alex.