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Tropics Update

Posted Sep 26, 2010 by Megan Hatton

Updated Sep 26, 2010 at 11:21 AM

This will be a week where paying attention to the latest forecast is a must. Forecast models continue to indicate some type of feature, possibly tropical, forming along a frontal boundary over the Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean Sea.

At this point the National Hurricane Center is focusing on a broad area of disorganized showers and storms in the western Caribbean.  But until the system becomes more organized it will be anyone’s guess what the forecast track or intensity will be. Until then, we rely on computer models to make day-to-day forecasts for an idea of where this system could go. The hurricane center is assigning a 10 percent chance that this area will become a depression or tropical storm within 48 hours. Models indicate that some type of feature could impact the Tampa Bay area with heavy rain as early as Wednesday.

Matthew and Lisa have both weakened to tropical depressions. Lisa will meander off the coast of Africa as it drifts to the west-northwest and transitions into a remnant low. Matthew has sustained winds near 25 mph, but it isn’t the wind that’s the issue. With rainfall amounts of 10 to 30 inches forecast to fall in parts of southern Mexico and northern Central America, dangerous flash floods and mudslides are almost certain. The last advisory for Matthew was issued at 11 a.m., but the system will continue to produce heavy rain into early next week.