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Senate primary poll: What’s up with that?

Posted Aug 5, 2011 by William March

Updated Aug 5, 2011 at 04:30 PM

The results of the Quinnipiac University poll in Florida’s Republican U.S. Senate primary were surprising to some, shocking to others, showing dark horse Mike McCalister in the lead, George LeMieux second, and even darker horse Craig Miller ahead of former House Majority Leader Adam Hasner.

What does it mean? Here are a couple of opinions, one from an academic and one from a GOP consultant:

—University of Florida political scientist Steve Craig: “I would pay absolutely no attention to these numbers—they don’t tell you anything about what’s likely to happen.”
More than half the respondents answered “don’t know,” he noted—“Many respondents are simply answering based on the sound of the name or maybe the perceived ethnicity of the name. This is a bunch of people the voters just don’t know.”
Asked whether Republicans are in a quandary about picking a nominee against Democratic incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson, he said, “They just don’t have a frontrunner, but that’s not an unusual place to be at this stage.”

—Apryl Marie Fogel, GOP political consultant: State Senate Pres Mike Haridopolos, who has now dropped out of the race, “had so much money he sucked all the oxygen out of the race. Now it’s wide open if someone else wants to get in.”
“None of the candidates are drawing crowds and gaining momentum like Marco Rubio did in the 2010 race. There’s certainly not a Rubio in the race—Hasner has tried” to duplicte Rubio’s success, “but if he doesn’t move soon, the window will pass.”