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Q poll: Gingrich surging in Fla since SC primary

Posted Jan 25, 2012 by William March

Updated Jan 25, 2012 at 11:49 AM

A new Quinnipiac University poll shows Newt Gingrich in a statistical tie with Mitt Romney among Republican voters in Florida, all but wiping out Romney’s former 12-point lead.

The numbers: Romney, 36 percent, Gingrich 34 percent, Rick Santorum 13 percent, Ron Paul 10 percent, someone else/don’t know, 8 percent. That’s from a sample of 601 likely GOP primary voters with a 4-point error margin, so Romney’s 2-point lead isn’t statistically significant, and Quinnipiac pollster Peter Brown called it “a dead heat.”

In a Jan. 9 installment of the Quinnipiac poll, Romney led with 36 percent to Gingrich’s 24 percent.

But the effect of Gingrich’s South Carolina win may have been even more dramatic than the change suggests.

The new poll was done Jan. 19-23, while the South Carolina primary was on Jan. 21—and Brown noted that Gingrich led by 40-34 percent among those respondents reached after the South Carolina primary. That resuilt, in a smaller sample, would have a higher error margin.

Gingrich also led 43-30 percent, again with a higher error margin, among those who describe themselves as white, born-again evangelicals.

It’s the third poll in three days showing dramatic movement by Gingrich.

A Public Policy Polling survey released Monday showed Gingrich with a 5-point lead on a 3.2-point error margin, and a poll by Cherry Communications for the Florida Chamber of Commerce Tuesday showed the two in a virtual dead heat—Romney 33.1 percent and Gingrich, 32.9 percent.

You can see the full results of the new Quinnipiac poll here.