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October and The Tropics

Posted Sep 25, 2010 by Megan Hatton

Updated Sep 25, 2010 at 11:52 AM

At first glance forecast models had Tropical Storm Matthew taking a sharp turn to the north, entering the Gulf of Mexico.  In reality, the system makes landfall in Central America a day or two later and is forecast to weaken over the mountainous landscape.  This is the perfect example of the uncertainty of forecast models.  But those same models are indicating the tropical threat may not be over yet for the Gulf coast of Florida.

There has been a lot of chatter about a potential tropical system impacting the bay area late next week.  The model consensus is that a system will develop in the northwest Caribbean or southern Gulf but that is where the agreement ends.  Some models take the system across southern Florida and up the east coast while others hint of a landfall as far west as Louisiana.  But again, these forecast tracks are for a system that hasn’t formed yet.

What?  No threatening tropical system on the map?  Why is everyone freaking out?  What is most concerning is the pattern that protected us from tropical systems all summer long may actually enhance our chances of being affected by a tropical system if it forms in the Gulf or Caribbean.  The subtropical high is in its typical summer position providing an east to southeasterly flow.  However a dip in the jetstream (called a trough) that has curved the Atlantic-forming systems away from land may help to pull any Gulf-forming systems to the north or northeast, opening the doors to the west coast of Florida.

So what do we do?  Well panic or worry is never an answer.  At this point the area is not under any watch or warning nor included in any cone of uncertainty.  But when several independent models hint to a developing system in an area that favors tropical development climatologically, you have to take notice.  Be certain your supplies and kits are ready to go and review your hurricane plan with your family.  October is a month when we really have to watch the tropics.  Even if this upcoming system never comes to fruition, this active season may have another one right down the road.