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Mason-Dixon: Obama Up By 2 Points In Florida

Posted Oct 7, 2008 by William March

Updated Oct 7, 2008 at 12:09 PM

A new poll by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for The Tampa Tribune and other Florida news agencies shows Barack Obama leading John McCain in Florida by 2 points—less than the margin of error and therefore statistically a tie.

The numbers: Obama, 48 percent; McCain, 46 percent; others, 1 percent; undecided, 6 percent.

The margin of error is 4 percentage points.

This outcome is consistent with other polls published in the past week or so in that it shows Obama leading, but it gives Obama a narrower margin than most others. Other polls have shown him leading by 3 to 6 percentage points. A Florida Chamber of Commerce poll last week was the exception, showing McCain narrowly ahead.

The RealClearPolitics Web site, which averages the results of all political polls by state, showed Obama with an average lead of 3.1 points in recent Florida polls before the Mason-Dixon poll came out.

Pollster Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon said his poll may reflect a slightly smaller Obama lead because it includes results from calls made as late as Monday night, and news events in the past few days could have benefitted McCain.

During the day Monday, for example, Sarah Palin made highly publicized appearances in Clearwater and Estero as part of a two-day tour continuing today; and in the past few days, the McCain campaign has increased it advertising buy in Florida and ramped up its negative rhetoric attacking Obama.

Interest in the Mason-Dixon poll is heightened because some political insiders consider Mason-Dixon the most reliable of published political polls in Florida and because it generally is thought that McCain must win Florida to win the election. The close poll outcome therefore suggests the two will be battling intensely in Florida until Nov. 4.