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Key Political Web Site: Florida’s ‘Leaning Obama’

Posted Oct 14, 2008 by William March

Updated Oct 14, 2008 at 10:27 AM

The RealClearPolitics Web site, which is fast becoming an indispensable reference for political junkies, has moved Florida from the “tossup” to the “leaning Obama” category, with yesterday’s Rasmussen poll showing Obama up five points. A five-point Obama lead now is the RCP average of Florida polls.

For a couple of weeks, RCP left Florida in the tossup category in spite of polls showing Obama with a narrow lead—probably because of the state’s recent history of leaning Republican and possibly also because of the state GOP’s vaunted voter turnout machine. With their turnout efforts, the state Republicans often manage to run slightly ahead of the polls on Election Day.

For what it’s worth, fivethirtyeight.com, which takes a more technical and less historical approach to evaluating polls, already had listed Florida as leaning Obama. Karl Rove, as of Friday, still had Florida listed as a tossup.

RCP’s move of Florida and Colorado from tossup to Obama leaners means the site now gives Obama 313 projected Electoral College votes—238 “solid” and 75 “leaning”—compared with McCain’s 158, or 140 solid and 18 leaning. It takes 270 electoral votes to win.