Iran Threatens To Shut Straight Of Hormuz, Pentagon Says It Will Stay Open

Posted Jan 23, 2012 by Howard Altman

Updated Jan 23, 2012 at 08:27 AM

This just in: As reports come in that Fars, the official Iranian news agency, says Iran will shut the Straight of Hormuz over the EU oil embargo, I asked Pentagon spokesman John Kirby for a response.

“Have seen no indications of that. We will stand by our commitments to the region and to the free flow of commerce through the Strait.”

Stay tuned…

Here’s the second piece in the series of essays I have solicited from experts about how the U.S. should approach Iran. The European Union has just voted on an embargo of oil from Iran in response to concerns that Iran is developing nuclear weapons and yesterday, the USS Abraham Lincoln cruised through the Straight of Hormuz, with no inicidents, despite Iranian threats.

Today’s essay is by Dr. Hayat Alvi, an associate professor at the Naval War College.

Iran No House of Cards

The global powers are asking what should be done about Iran, especially its nuclear program. The answer requires deep philosophical contemplation, not only about the present, but also the long-term impacts of all possible scenarios. Politicians are not typically known to think deeply and philosophically before taking a course of action. But, we face this moment as the dust has yet to settle in Iraq and Afghanistan. If we have learned anything from these recent wars, it should be: don’t act in haste. Or, don’t pick a fight with another country to win points for reelection in November.

The way things look, the pincer is squeezing Iran’s close ally Syria’s Assad regime, while harsh sanctions are imposed on Iran and war drums are beating in all directions. However, military strikes and war are not necessary. They should be considered only as a last resort, and we have not exhausted all other options yet. Even the former US Defense Secretary Robert Gates and current Secretary Leon Panetta emphasized this last resort point.

Military strikes will only delay Iran’s nuclear program development, and are likely to trigger a devastating region-wide war. Professor Adam Lowtherin, US Air Force University, published an op-ed in the Diplomat (Jan. 9), in which he lists five reasons not to attack Iran: (1) “The Iranian military is far more competent and capable, and after watching the war in Iraq for a decade has a good understanding of US tactics and strategy;” (2) “Hezbollah is more capable of conducting terrorist attacks than al-Qaeda ever was;” (3) Iran’s espionage service, the Ministry of Intelligence and National Security (MOIS), “is among the most competent in the world;” (4) “Iran’s cyber capabilities are impressive and growing”; and (5) “A limited attack on Iran will likely escalate into a wider war.”

Also, Professor Sajjad Ashraf at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, Singapore, warns that some strategists are making erroneous assumptions about the ‘house of cards’ fragility of the Iranian regime. He says, “The US impression that the Iranian leadership will disintegrate under pressure is a serious miscalculation.” He adds that in order to resolve this standoff, Western powers must understand Iran’s regional and national security concerns and perceived threats.

What can we do then? Shibley Telhami and Steven Kull suggest, “working toward a nuclear weapons-free zone in the Middle East,” and this would also require Israel’s cooperation for regional disarmament (New York Times, Jan. 16). The alternative, they warn, is an entire region that goes nuclear. If that happens, which is very likely, who will keep whom in check?

Hayat Alvi, Ph.D., is an Associate Professor in the National Security Affairs Department at the US Naval War College. She specializes in the Middle East and South Asia.

The views expressed are her own.

Web Site: http://hayatalvi.com/
Blog: http://hayatalvi.org/

Next up: Dr. Imad Khadduri, author of the book “Iraq’s Nuclear Mirage: Memoirs and Delusions,” worked on the Iraq nuclear weapons program beginning in 1981 and left Iraq for Canada in the late 1990s.