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Gingrich, Huntsman diss P5

Posted Sep 14, 2011 by William March

Updated Sep 14, 2011 at 12:57 PM

GOP presidential candidates Newt Gingrich and Jon Huntsman are both dissing the Florida Republican Party’s Presidency 5 straw poll.

But their comments, and the decisions by Michele Bachmann and Mitt Romney to play down the straw poll, sound a lot like candidates playing the expectations game.

The game works just like a college coach praising next weekend’s opponent in advance of the game: Lower expectations in advance for yourself, raise them for your opponent, and the result is your campaign appears to do better than expected, convincing undecided primary voters you’re the candidate with momentum.

In a New Hampshire town hall meeting Tuesday night, Huntsman told voters their primary was more important than “a hokey party straw poll ... You have to earn the votes.”

Making his first Tampa campaign appearance Tuesday night, Gingrich said of P5, “We’re not actively competing ... I assume that if somebody wants to go in and spend a lot of money they’ll do very very well.

“It has no effect on next year, and I think in that sense it’s not a predictor of anything.”

In fact, campaigns can’t bus in supporters or buy them voting tickets as in other party straw polls, and none of the campaigns are spending heavily on this year’s event, although some have in the past.

In the three elections when the state GOP has held the straw poll, it has picked the eventual winner of the Republican nomination every time—Ronald Reagan in 1980, George H.W. Bush in 1988 and Bob Dole in 1996.

Asked about that, Gingrich said, “We’ll find out. We are in a period where so many things are happening that are historic and there are so many changes underway that it’s very hard to imagine what January, February and March are going to be like.”

State GOP spokesman Brian Hughes noted that when Huntsman began his campaign, heavily emphasizing his hopes to win Florida and putting his national headquarters in Orlando, he was the first candidate to make a full commitment to compete in Presidency 5, and that Bachmann, Gingrich, Huntsman and Romney all plan to attend the Presidency 5 convention at which the straw poll will be held, and will have their names on the ballot.

He said P5 “is more likely this year than in the past to predict the winner because of the delegate process we’ve had”—the number of delegates has been expanded, including “everybody from local grassroots activists to large donors.”

“These delegates represent the core activist base of the party, the ones who will knock on doors and give money at all levels, elected officials at all levels,” he said. “Iif you intend to compete and win in Florida these are the people you must have on your team.”