Former Special Operations Command Director of Training: Iran-US Relations Nuclear Slippery Slope

Posted Feb 1, 2012 by Howard Altman

Updated Feb 1, 2012 at 10:30 AM

As intelligence officials tell Congress their concerns of Iranian-spurred attacks on the homeland, retired Air Force Col. Stephen P. Howard, an irregular warfare specialist and former chief of special operations training at U.S. Special Operations Command writes that factions in both countries are leading to friction.

Slippery Nuclear Slope

The current impasse between the United States and Iran over nuclear proliferation is reaching a critical point once again.  Forget about solving this problem by using a military solution.  No one wins and the world loses if the situation escalates to military action.  Iran is not a unified country.  There are competing interests within Iran that are split between religious and political personalities, liberal reformists, pragmatists, hardliners and conservatives.  Iran is a fragmented oligarchy, with no strong or central leadership.  The Ayatollah Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran, is neither supreme, nor capable of leading the numerous interest groups vying for power within Iran.  He uses his position to postpone decisions in order not to make a decision, thus creating a perpetual environment of indecision.

Likewise, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, does not represent a broad portion of the Iranian population.  He receives media attention because of his outrageous and often ridiculous public statements against Israel and the United States.  However, his continued hold on power as President of Iran is contingent upon receiving support from a myriad of interest groups within Iran that are more pragmatic and less radical than he.

Iranian clerics and politicians, and President Ahmadinejad in particular, are using the nuclear issue to deflect attention from their weakening economy.  Iran derives 80 percent of its total foreign revenue from oil.  Oil production in Iran is declining while internal consumption is increasing.  During the Shah’s rule, Iran was the second largest oil producer and exporter in the world.  Oil finances all of Iran’s “special interest” groups.  Current declining oil production capacity may make Iran a net oil importer by the end of this decade.  Thus bankrupting their economy and almost ensuring an “Iranian Spring” with long-term negative consequences for the conservative oligarchs who are in power.

Iran is desperate for Western support and technology to help their economy and improve their oil production infrastructure.  Neither the Chinese nor the Russians can provide the variety and quality of oil production technology that is available from corporations like Exxon, Shell or Chevron.  Likewise the United States needs good paying jobs to rebuild its lagging economy.  Saber rattling and threatening regional military conflict benefits no one.  The more rational and useful approach is for U.S. and Iran to meet face-to-face and build an economic relationship between the two countries based on National self-interest.

Sadly, U.S. foreign policy is fragmented and incoherent.  Secretary of State Clinton needs to personally lead the U.S. negotiation team.  However, the current Obama Administration appears to hate “Big Oil.”  Therefore U.S. economic and political interests cannot be well served by the current Administration.

On the other hand, Iran’s foreign policy and political leadership is even more fragmented and disjointed than that of the U.S.  If the U.S. was capable of putting together a competent negotiating team, whom in Iran would they meet with who has sufficient power and authority to sign an enforceable agreement?  This results in two heavily armed, incompetently-led nations facing one another having neither sufficient skills nor empowerment to do what is best for their respective countries.  A win-win solution ultimately ends up as a lose-lose debacle because neither the United States nor Iran can approach the issues in a rational, non-emotional way.  Unless positive diplomatic steps are taken soon both countries will ultimately stumble into a nuclear military conflict that changes the world forever.

Howard retired after nearly 30 years of active duty military assignments serving in numerous Special Operations and Strategic Planning positions throughout his career.  He is the senior consultant to Quality Quest Incorporated, an associate fellow with the Joint Special Operations University Strategic Studies Department, and continues consulting on Irregular and Guerrilla Warfare for the Department of Defense.