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Do Polls Predict Turnout?

Posted Nov 7, 2006 by Clarisa Gerlach

Updated Nov 7, 2006 at 05:20 PM

Why is it that the politicians say they don’t listen to polls and yet they seem to use polls to plan their campaign strategies? In the really close races the analysts say who wins will all come down to turnout. Can the polls predict turnout, especially close to election day?
Sheri

Dear Sheri:

The need to be perceived as “governing by principle or belief” rather than by polls is precisely why candidates shy away from admitting polls affect their platforms.

However, when politicians tell you they don’t listen to polls, it just means their political consultants are doing it for them!  Polls and focus groups are used to test all those ads that are sent to you in the mail or aired on television and radio.  Since those ads are very expensive, it just makes sense their content would reflect topics that grab the potential
voters’ attention. Surveys help identify these issues.

You’re right to question the ability of polls to predict turnout on Election Day.  In 2004, polls taken in Florida immediately prior to the presidential election showed a dead-heat race between Republican George W. Bush and Democrat John F. Kerry. Yet Bush won by 5%. Florida Republicans turned out at a higher rate than Florida Democrats.

The latest polls in Florida show that Republican Charlie Crist is ahead.  The real question mark now is whether Florida Democrats have improved their Get Out the Vote (GOTV) operations considerably since 2004.