Add Your Photos | Ask a question | Live Video Weather Coverage | Hurricane Guide

Changes Are A Comin’

Posted Dec 11, 2010 by Megan Hatton

Updated Dec 11, 2010 at 11:14 AM

Most, if not all, of the bay area kicked off the weekend with dense fog.  Fog blanketed the area with visibilities less than a quarter of a mile in spots.  Skies will gradually clear for the remainder of the day with highs in the mid 60s to near 70 degrees.  If you need to put up those last minute holiday decorations this weekend, today is your day to get it done.  Unless you like being out in the rain.  And wind.  And the cold.  It’s all returning on Sunday.

Clouds and wind will increase overnight and patchy dense fog may develop on Sunday morning.  Forecast models are indicating a strong frontal passage around midday on Sunday.  Our rain chances increase to 40%.  A very strong northwest wind will usher in a much cooler air mass with temperatures plunging into the 30s and 40s by Monday morning.  We will have concerns with overnight freezes for both Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. 

---

Tropics Update

Posted Sep 26, 2010 by Megan Hatton

Updated Sep 26, 2010 at 10:21 AM

This will be a week where paying attention to the latest forecast is a must. Forecast models continue to indicate some type of feature, possibly tropical, forming along a frontal boundary over the Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean Sea.

At this point the National Hurricane Center is focusing on a broad area of disorganized showers and storms in the western Caribbean.  But until the system becomes more organized it will be anyone’s guess what the forecast track or intensity will be. Until then, we rely on computer models to make day-to-day forecasts for an idea of where this system could go. The hurricane center is assigning a 10 percent chance that this area will become a depression or tropical storm within 48 hours. Models indicate that some type of feature could impact the Tampa Bay area with heavy rain as early as Wednesday.

Matthew and Lisa have both weakened to tropical depressions. Lisa will meander off the coast of Africa as it drifts to the west-northwest and transitions into a remnant low. Matthew has sustained winds near 25 mph, but it isn’t the wind that’s the issue. With rainfall amounts of 10 to 30 inches forecast to fall in parts of southern Mexico and northern Central America, dangerous flash floods and mudslides are almost certain. The last advisory for Matthew was issued at 11 a.m., but the system will continue to produce heavy rain into early next week.

 

---

October and The Tropics

Posted Sep 25, 2010 by Megan Hatton

Updated Sep 25, 2010 at 10:52 AM

At first glance forecast models had Tropical Storm Matthew taking a sharp turn to the north, entering the Gulf of Mexico.  In reality, the system makes landfall in Central America a day or two later and is forecast to weaken over the mountainous landscape.  This is the perfect example of the uncertainty of forecast models.  But those same models are indicating the tropical threat may not be over yet for the Gulf coast of Florida.

There has been a lot of chatter about a potential tropical system impacting the bay area late next week.  The model consensus is that a system will develop in the northwest Caribbean or southern Gulf but that is where the agreement ends.  Some models take the system across southern Florida and up the east coast while others hint of a landfall as far west as Louisiana.  But again, these forecast tracks are for a system that hasn’t formed yet.

What?  No threatening tropical system on the map?  Why is everyone freaking out?  What is most concerning is the pattern that protected us from tropical systems all summer long may actually enhance our chances of being affected by a tropical system if it forms in the Gulf or Caribbean.  The subtropical high is in its typical summer position providing an east to southeasterly flow.  However a dip in the jetstream (called a trough) that has curved the Atlantic-forming systems away from land may help to pull any Gulf-forming systems to the north or northeast, opening the doors to the west coast of Florida.

So what do we do?  Well panic or worry is never an answer.  At this point the area is not under any watch or warning nor included in any cone of uncertainty.  But when several independent models hint to a developing system in an area that favors tropical development climatologically, you have to take notice.  Be certain your supplies and kits are ready to go and review your hurricane plan with your family.  October is a month when we really have to watch the tropics.  Even if this upcoming system never comes to fruition, this active season may have another one right down the road.

---

Watching The Tropics

Posted Jun 25, 2010 by Megan Hatton

Updated Jun 25, 2010 at 08:25 AM

The tropics are heating up!  One area of continued interest is south of Cuba and east of the Yucatan Peninsula.  The National Hurricane Center is forecasting a 70% chance this system could become a depression or tropical storm within the next 48 hours.  An Air Force Recon flight is scheduled to investigate this area later today.  The system doesn’t look too impressive on satellite; there is abundant convection but no clear organization or circulation.  Low shear and warm water temperatures will keep the environment conducive for development.

As for strength and track, the models are in complete disagreement once and IF the system enters the Gulf.  A handful of models take the system northwest towards the Texas coast, while others swing it north to northeast posing a threat to the northern Gulf coast.  What is certain for the bay area will be an influx of tropical moisture.  Rain chances will steadily increase through the weekend and rain may be quite heavy as we head into next week.

Another area of interest is to the east of the northern Leeward Islands.  According to the National Hurricane Center there is a 10% chance or less of this system becoming a depression or tropical storm within the next 48 hours.

The first name on the list for the 2010 season is Alex.

 

---

School Visit

Posted Mar 16, 2010 by Megan Hatton

Updated Mar 16, 2010 at 12:33 PM

Thanks to the 2nd grade class at Lee Elementary and Ms. Barone for inviting me to their school today!  We discussed the steps we need to take to prepare for the upcoming hurricane season and the items we should include in disaster-ready kits for our homes.  The students are preparing disaster-ready kits for the less fortunate.  What a great group of students and an amazing service they are providing to the community!  I know a lot of folks will appreciate those kits!

” />

---