Send your political question to Susan MacManus

Do Polls Predict Turnout?

Posted Nov 7, 2006 by Clarisa Gerlach

Updated Nov 7, 2006 at 04:20 PM

Why is it that the politicians say they don’t listen to polls and yet they seem to use polls to plan their campaign strategies? In the really close races the analysts say who wins will all come down to turnout. Can the polls predict turnout, especially close to election day?
Sheri

Dear Sheri:

The need to be perceived as “governing by principle or belief” rather than by polls is precisely why candidates shy away from admitting polls affect their platforms.

However, when politicians tell you they don’t listen to polls, it just means their political consultants are doing it for them!  Polls and focus groups are used to test all those ads that are sent to you in the mail or aired on television and radio.  Since those ads are very expensive, it just makes sense their content would reflect topics that grab the potential
voters’ attention. Surveys help identify these issues.

You’re right to question the ability of polls to predict turnout on Election Day.  In 2004, polls taken in Florida immediately prior to the presidential election showed a dead-heat race between Republican George W. Bush and Democrat John F. Kerry. Yet Bush won by 5%. Florida Republicans turned out at a higher rate than Florida Democrats.

The latest polls in Florida show that Republican Charlie Crist is ahead.  The real question mark now is whether Florida Democrats have improved their Get Out the Vote (GOTV) operations considerably since 2004.

---

Pros And Cons

Posted Nov 3, 2006 by Clarisa Gerlach

Updated Nov 3, 2006 at 03:39 PM

Is there some way to easier compare the candidates on their pro and cons on certain issues?  After watching the debates, I am more confused than ever.  And, is there a way to find out the rulings of the judges so we can make an educated decision on whether we do or don’t want to retain them?  Thanks!
Jennifer G.

Dear Jennifer:

Many Florida voters share your frustration with the lack of clear, succinct information on candidates’ views on important issues.  That said, here are some recommendations about how to find a candidate’s issue positions. 

1.  Gubernatorial candidate websites: 
Charlie Crist/Jeff Kottcamp (Republican): www.charliecrist.com
Jim Davis/Daryl Jones (Democrat): www.jimdavis2006.com
Max Linn/Tom Macklin (Reform Party): www.maxlinn.com
Independent and write-in candidates’ websites:  http://election.dos.state.fl.us

2.  Newspaper stories and endorsements.  All Florida’s daily newspapers can be accessed online (free) at wwww.newsdirectory.com.
To make it easier to compare their plans, I suggest you create a chart laying out their stances side-by-side in columns.  Actually, some of Florida’s largest newspapers do this in their Voter Guides posted online.

Deciding how to vote on the retention of Florida’s Supreme Court Justices and Appellate Court Judges (those subject to retention elections) is time-consuming. But it is possible to determine their rulings on cases before them by going to:
http://www.floridasupremecourt.org/decisions/2006/sc01-166.pdf

Newspaper editorials are another good source of information about the performance of these judges: http://www.newsdirectory.com 

---

Lack Of Attention To Education

Posted Nov 2, 2006 by Clarisa Gerlach

Updated Nov 2, 2006 at 11:18 AM

My question is about education. I understand that homeowners insurance is a hot ticket item in this year’s election, but I was rather disappointed that the education was not touched upon in great detail in both gubernatorial debates. Do you think that there is a correlation between our focus on education and the fact that Florida ranks 49th in graduation rate among the United States? I also would like to know your stance on the FCAT. I feel that the FCAT should be used as a learning tool and not something that could ultimately jeopardize someone’s graduation.

Thank you,

Staci Lynn
USF Student
Lutz, Florida

Dear Staci:

You are absolutely right about the lack of attention to education, especially higher education, in both gubernatorial debates. It’s no wonder that many college students (who ironically are the high turnout young voters) are frustrated. Issues facing college students—student loans, tuition, class size, course availability—were totally neglected, with all the focus on K-12.  And then candidates wonder why young college-age voters are disengaged.

Polls this election cycle have shown that Floridians are somewhat divided as to the use of the F-CAT. But the issue itself has taken a backseat to pocketbook issues—homeowners insurance, property taxes and rising health care costs.  The candidates’ focus on these issues reflects the realities of the age makeup of non-presidential election year voters. In Florida, the turnout rates of Boomers and seniors far exceed those of young voters. 

You have put your finger on the classic chicken-and-egg scenario. Young voters don’t vote because the candidates aren’t addressing higher education issues, and candidates don’t address college-related issues because young voters don’t vote.

Florida’s graduation rate ranking is attributable to many factors. But certainly more attention to higher education issues would be a critical giant first step to solving the problem.

---

Votes Of The Rural Community

Posted Nov 1, 2006 by Clarisa Gerlach

Updated Nov 1, 2006 at 08:03 AM

Most of my family lives in the rural area of Brooksville, Fl. They have received few political mailers if any at all. Why is that? Do the parties just not want the votes of the rural community?

Ashley Kuhn
USF Student
Brooksville, Fl

Dear Ashley:

Parties should definitely want the votes of the rural community—after all, rural areas in Florida often have higher voter turnout rates than the state’s urban areas.

It is difficult to say why your family members have not received much direct mail without knowing what political party, if any, they are registered with and how often they vote, especially in non-presidential election years.

Since mailers are expensive (35 to 50 cents or more), candidates without much money may not be able to send out direct mail. And it is often difficult to raise money if you are a first-time candidate or if you are running against a popular incumbent with high name recognition. It is also difficult to raise money to spend on ads if you’re a candidate whose political party rarely wins elections in a particular area of the state. 

In summary, there can be a lot of other reasons why a registered voter may not get any mailers or fliers from candidates. The most common are:

1. The leading candidate has no serious opposition—so he/she doesn’t need to send out direct mail.
2. If a voter is an infrequent voter (one only votes in presidential elections), candidates may choose not to send them any mail, particularly if short on campaign funds.  More frequent voters are a higher priority.
3. If a voter is registered with a particular political party whose candidates rarely win, that candidate will likely not have enough money to send out mailers..
4. If a voter is registered as an independent, he/she may not get much mail, unless the race is close, then independents will get tons of it.

Even if your family members get direct mail, there’s no guarantee they will read it.  Older voters tend to read these fliers more than younger voters.  Today’s mailers have to capture the voter’s attention which is challenging to those who design these pieces. A political consultant once told me that “I have from the time someone takes the mailer out of the mailbox to the first trash can to get them to read it!”

---

Max Linn Allowed In Debate

Posted Oct 31, 2006 by Alex Vila

Updated Oct 31, 2006 at 03:59 PM

Monday night’s gubernatorial debate between Charlie Crist, Jim Davis,  and Max Linn seemed to introduce quite a few topics that we have heard little about in this election cycle (including gay marriage/civil unions and the high violent crime rate in Florida). With only a week left until election day was the introduction of these issues beneficial to voter education or should the time have been spent on the larger issues in this state (home insurance, property taxes,  education, etc…)? Also, how will Max Linn’s criticisms of both candidates affect voters and the perceptions held about both candidates?

Matt Bray
Land O’ Lakes, FL

In the debates last night, they finally allowed Max Linn to participate. What significance does this have on the governor race? Is there any national significance as well?
Sophia Dedon

How will Max Lynn’s appearance in the debate affect the outcome of the election?
Frank Kerney

Dear Matt, Sophia, and Frank:

No doubt about it!  Last night’s debate was certainly the most exciting one in quite awhile!  The court-ordered admission of Max Linn (Reform Party) into the debate came at the “eleventh hour.”  Neither Chris Matthews, the moderator, nor Charlie Crist (R) and Jim Davis (D) had any warning.  Consequently, the debate was much more spontaneous than usual. The unpredictable, unscripted nature of the debate was what captured viewers’ attention.

Max Linn’s entry into the debate might energize the 22% of Florida voters who are not registered as either Democrats or Republicans.  Independent voters tend to be young and, to date, there has been little evidence they have been energized by the gubernatorial election.  However, Linn did little to promote the Reform Party, choosing to focus his attacks primarily on frontrunner Charlie Crist.  Still, voters now know there’s a third option out there. To what degree that will be enough to make independents (or undecideds) vote is uncertain. 

Perhaps the more powerful and long-lasting impact of Linn’s entry will be to force debate schedulers to include “minor” party candidates in future debates, not just the Democratic and Republican party nominees.

As to issues, some viewers were disappointed that too many national issues over which governors have little authority were covered at the expense of more Florida-specific issues.  The glaring omissions were discussions of higher education, immigration, health care, national and homeland security (especially with Florida’s large number of ports, airports, and military installations), and the environment (most notably water).

The late entry of Max Linn onto the gubernatorial stage, the excitement it has generated, and the possible turnout ramifications of his candidacy just go to show why pundits and prognosticators are cautious about predicting election results with a week left to go in the campaign—especially in Florida!

---